OK, hear me out. There are a lot of assumptions about to be laid out.
The fundamental value proposition rule is that there is 1. service 2. quality, and 3. price. Choose two.
1. Mall shopping is going to plummet to next to nothing, I feel. For whatever reason, it's just out, out, out. How is the 40-year old juggernaut "mall optical" going to survive? You know, the Lenscrafters', the old D.O.C. model, etc. What would the industry look like with the extreme contraction of mall superopticals? Value proposition won't apply because nobody will go. Rating: super bearish
2. Internet shopping is very, very likely to propel online glasses buying into the stratosphere. This is not going to be a good option for most. Maybe a good enough option for some. What is the optical world going to look like with tons of DIY optical jobs? We have online nobodies making glasses for adventurous buyers with nary an input from a human. There's always a cellar dwellar, and this will become the new cheap way to do things. Value proposition? S= beyond zero. Q= low. P= inexpensive. Rating: very bullish.
3. There are freestanding chain-type opticals. I can see these proliferating because I think that's how "bricks and mortar" buying is going to be conducted. But these have been traditionally very bad. VSP is in this space, now, and I don't expect them to succeed, either. Thow EyeMart and Pearle in here. These have expensive overhead, and need to sell higher end product, but there's probably quite a dearth of good expertise available. I think this will have a better environment for buying than #4. Value proposition? S = meh, Q = meh, P = meh. Rating: somewhat bearish.
4. Buying club-type opticals and Target/Walmart. I would call these discount opticals. They have hosts that probably can make operators a sweet deal, as the hosts see value added for their shoppers. So we have Costco/Target/Walmart selling dog crap frames and meh lenses with fair-to-middlin' staff in awful environments. This will be the standard for non-internet buying, for the most part. S=meh, but not internet low. Q= low. P= good. Bullish.
So, where is the golden age?
We will have less and less swanky mall and optical-dedicated freestandings, if you ask me. You would have to sell high quality materials with great service and a high price. And I just don't think a big corporation can staff these stores with good people. They just can't make a value proposition.
I don't think we're going to see mom and pop optical boutiques growing like weeds due to a mass increase in market share. But I do see the growth of a segment I'll call "optical boutique" asserting itself. One that is creative, clever, caring, high-touch, unique, expert, experience-oriented, and ultimately relatively expensive. Value proposition: S=high, Q=high, P=expensive.
I think this is the way forward.
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