Who will be the Democratic Nominee?

[Pete Hanlin]

For better or worse, it seems Sen. McCain is close enough to be considered a "shoe-in" for the GOP nomination (and who would've thunk- I for one thought this guy was buried before the primaries began)...

So, the question is, who will survive the Democratic primary. It seems amazing how quickly and decisively Sen. Obama has seized the momentum in the primary. Personally, it would seem the press (and a lot of moderates and centrist Republicans) are having a "love-in" with this candidate. Will he be able to ride this current wave into the general election?

Although I've already indicated I just can't vote for McCain, watching both candidates tonight, I think McCain may not be as dead in the water as Fox and CNN seem to think. Obama's idea of "universal healthcare" is going to scare a lot of moderates when it is investigated during the general election.

Right now, if Sen. Clinton loses Ohio, Pennsylvania and/or Texas, I think the two candidates are pretty much set- Sen McCain vs. Sen Obama. If McCain has any brains, he'll choose a really conservative VP (perhaps Huckabee, since he's the apparent choice of the religious right), but I'm not sure what kind of VP really helps Sen Obama.

What do you think?

[rbaker]

In 1983,Edwin W Edwards, Governor of Louisiana said ["I could not lose unless I was] caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy." I believe the same holds true for Obama. Of course we still have some time for the Clinton's to go through all of his closets.

[Judy Canty]

"investigated"?? Like Max Cleland was investigated? Nothing is investigated during a campaign. Ridiculed, lied about and spinned, but never investigated.

[chip anderson]

Reguardless of who is nominated by either party it will be the wrong man.

[gemstone]

but I'm not sure what kind of VP really helps Sen Obama.

What do you think?

He's proven he can win the south in spite of Edwards (as a mate.) Edwards was the kiss in the last one. He may never be chosen for that reason.
I'd be very surprised if he chose Billary. Too many fresh, deep wounds.
This is a big question. Maybe he'll choose someone not too well known. I do feel the country is ready for a women president. Just not Hillary. She has too much the wrong kind of baggage.

[Pete Hanlin]

Didn't mean anything negative by the word investigated- how about "explored," "better understood," "more widely known," etc.

For example, his apparent willingness to make amends with Fidel Castro is not going to play well in Florida. His ideas about national healthcare are not going to play well with moderates who are fiscally conservative, and so on.

Still think Sen. Obama beats Sen. McCain (and still think Sen. Clinton would lose to Sen. McCain), because Sen. Obama would sweep The South.

I don't see any way Sen. Obama could choose Sen. Clinton as a running mate- if anything, she would cost him votes. He needs to find someone with a ton of experience who could fit well in a VP role. Personally, if he chose Sen. Lieberman I think I could vote for that ticket with a bit more confidence.

[Spexvet]

... Personally, if he chose Sen. Lieberman I think I could vote for that ticket with a bit more confidence.

I wouldn't have a problem with that, but the Dem party and anti-war voters probably would.

[For-Life]

Didn't mean anything negative by the word investigated- how about "explored," "better understood," "more widely known," etc.

For example, his apparent willingness to make amends with Fidel Castro is not going to play well in Florida. His ideas about national healthcare are not going to play well with moderates who are fiscally conservative, and so on.

Still think Sen. Obama beats Sen. McCain (and still think Sen. Clinton would lose to Sen. McCain), because Sen. Obama would sweep The South.

I don't see any way Sen. Obama could choose Sen. Clinton as a running mate- if anything, she would cost him votes. He needs to find someone with a ton of experience who could fit well in a VP role. Personally, if he chose Sen. Lieberman I think I could vote for that ticket with a bit more confidence.

I dislike Lieberman. So I would not be a fan of that. I think it would cost Obama votes.

[chip anderson]

Don't be too sure Obama would sweep the South. None of the Black people (or any other group for that matter) seem to be for him. As none of them were or are in favor of bussing. Only "de great black leada's) like Jessie Jackson and Al Sharpton are for him in the South.
If the the Republicans had a candidate, and they don't Obama could be in defeated in a heartbeat. Odd as it may seem most black people in the South (at least those that vote, as opposed to the hoodlums) are becoming very patriotic and very right wing. Maybe not as much as us rednecks yet, but far more so than in the recent past.

Chip

[Spexvet]

How about Biden? He's a old white man and has foriegn policy expertise. He wouldn't really attract voters who aren't already attracted to Obama, but who really makes their presidential selection based on the running mate?

[Spexvet]

Don't be too sure Obama would sweep the South. None of the Black people (or any other group for that matter) seem to be for him. As none of them were or are in favor of bussing. Only "de great black leada's) like Jessie Jackson and Al Sharpton are for him in the South.
If the the Republicans had a candidate, and they don't Obama could be in defeated in a heartbeat. Odd as it may seem most black people in the South (at least those that vote, as opposed to the hoodlums) are becoming very patriotic and very right wing. Maybe not as much as us rednecks yet, but far more so than in the recent past.

Chip

You are a bigot.

[For-Life]

How about Biden? He's a old white man and has foriegn policy expertise. He wouldn't really attract voters who aren't already attracted to Obama, but who really makes their presidential selection based on the running mate?

I would love to see him as Obama's running mate, but I think it would not help Obama a bit.

[chip anderson]

Spex: I don't see how you get bigotry out of this, I am trying to tell you that the South isn't going to vote for him because he is a democrat, and the most liberal of the democrats at that.
I assume that you assume the South will follow him because he is black and you think the South is all black and all blacks will vote democrat. It just ain't that way except in local elections. I know a lot of black people and they are as unhappy with the candidates of both parties as the rest of us.

Just as Hillary thinks all women will rally to her cause, actually most women find her to be one of the worst representatives of thier gender. Maybe 10% will rally behind her the rest can't stand her. Now does this mean I hate women? Of course not.

If I think a high percentage of blacks and a higher percentage of whites in the South are highly concervative, I guess this makes me a bigot in your silly liberal eyes.

Chip

[Spexvet]

...
I assume that you assume ...

assume....

... Only "de great black leada's) like Jessie Jackson and Al Sharpton are for him in the South.
...most black people in the South (at least those that vote, as opposed to the hoodlums) ...

Racist.

[1968]

Right now, if Sen. Clinton loses Ohio, Pennsylvania and/or Texas, I think the two candidates are pretty much set- Sen McCain vs. Sen Obama.

I think Clinton is currently ahead in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas, but Obama has been steadily gaining ground in those states and I think that trend will continue. Given the proportionality of how delegates are assigned, I think Obama will nose out Clinton even if he doesn't win the majority of the popular vote in OH, PA, and TX. It will be EXTREMELY interesting if Obama wins the majority of the regular delegates but with Clinton having enough superdelegates to put her over the top. That would forever more make the argument of Democrats who point out that Gore won the popular vote in 2000 a bunch of hot air!

[1968]

How about Biden? He's a old white man and has foriegn policy expertise. He wouldn't really attract voters who aren't already attracted to Obama, but who really makes their presidential selection based on the running mate?

Obama's goal would be 1) to lure potential McCain voters to his ticket and 2) to NOT turn away those who would otherwise vote for him. Biden would be a good choice for the first reason and Clinton would be a poor choice for the second.

[Grubendol]

And the Party is working hard in the background to avoid that eventuality…

The tricky part is that not all superdelegates are associated with representing some constituency. Some are bloggers who became district chairs, and some are just party stalwarts, like Al Gore. They have no constituency, from whom they can simply represent their votes for.

It will be very interesting to see how it all turns out, it’s exciting. I just hope the party doesn’t do what it has done for the past 20 years and screw it self by going for the safe party insider who inevitably cost them the general election.

[1968]

If McCain has any brains, he'll choose a really conservative VP (perhaps Huckabee, since he's the apparent choice of the religious right), but I'm not sure what kind of VP really helps Sen Obama.

The premise of that statement is that Huckabee is "really conservative". He is a religious right conservative but he certainly does not have the record of a fiscal conservative. Any VP choice is bound to please conservative voters because any Republican would be more conservative than McCain. Regardless, I think most Republican voters are fickle enough that they will rally around McCain regardless of his running mate.

[Spexvet]

Obama's goal would be 1) to lure potential McCain voters to his ticket and 2) to NOT turn away those who would otherwise vote for him...

The premise of that statement is that Huckabee is "really conservative". He is a religious right conservative but he certainly does not have the record of a fiscal conservative. Any VP choice is bound to please conservative voters because any Republican would be more conservative than McCain. Regardless, I think most Republican voters are fickle enough that they will rally around McCain regardless of his running mate.

A more conservative running mate will push more votes from McCain to the Dems, though...

[Robert Martellaro]

For better or worse, it seems Sen. McCain is close enough to be considered a "shoe-in" for the GOP nomination (and who would've thunk- I for one thought this guy was buried before the primaries began)...

I would say he has a lock on the nomination.

So, the question is, who will survive the Democratic primary.

Should be fun to watch. I don't believe either one can get enough delegates to cleanly win the nomination, even if one of them wins the remaining states.

I believe Clinton's only chance is to win two out of three next big states, and get the delegates from Michigan and Florida reinstated. That seems highly unlikely, so I would start being really nice to Obama.

It seems amazing how quickly and decisively Sen. Obama has seized the momentum in the primary. Personally, it would seem the press (and a lot of moderates and centrist Republicans) are having a "love-in" with this candidate. Will he be able to ride this current wave into the general election?

Have you listened to him speak? I don't know if he would be a better President than Bush, but at least the whole world won't have to bang its collective heads against the wall when our President answers a question.

Although I've already indicated I just can't vote for McCain, watching both candidates tonight, I think McCain may not be as dead in the water as Fox and CNN seem to think.

He's dead in the water. I can't think of fifteen states he could win. Ten tops, on a good day.

Obama's idea of "universal healthcare" is going to scare a lot of moderates when it is investigated during the general election.

Ah, here comes the scare word. Look, if McCain runs a really dirty election he'll end up winning one or two states. If he runs a reasonably clean race he'll do a little better.

Right now, if Sen. Clinton loses Ohio, Pennsylvania and/or Texas, I think the two candidates are pretty much set- Sen McCain vs. Sen Obama. If McCain has any brains, he'll choose a really conservative VP (perhaps Huckabee, since he's the apparent choice of the religious right), but I'm not sure what kind of VP really helps Sen Obama.

McCain could reanimate Reagan's political corpse, run him as VP, and still lose big. Obama dosen't need any help. Just someone to cover the funerals.

I've seen nothing but dead fish floating to the surface on the republican pond over the last few years, with no change in sight. I don't think America wants to swim in that pond again any time soon.

[1968]

The second runner-up for best line of the day...

Have you listened to him speak? I don't know if he would be a better President than Bush, but at least the whole world won't have to bang its collective heads against the wall when our President answers a question.

The first runner-up for best line of the day...

I've seen nothing but dead fish floating to the surface on the republican pond over the last few years, with no change in sight. I don't think America wants to swim in that pond again any time soon.

And the winner is...

McCain could reanimate Reagan's political corpse, run him as VP, and still lose big. Obama dosen't need any help. Just someone to cover the funerals.

[Grubendol]

Roffles to both of you!

:D

[Steve Machol]

Nothing's for certain of course but Obama does look like the clear front-runner for the Democratic nomination after last night's impressive victories.

If he does get the nomination I would love to see him choose Governor Janet Napolitano of Arizona for a running mate. She's extremely sharp, has executive experience and has been an effective and highly popular Governor in a hithertofore 'red' state. And although this is not why I would choose her, the fact is she would also blunt the disappointment some would have by seeing the only viable Woman candidate we've ever had not get the nomination.

Sen. Diane Feinstein would be another good choice as would either Sens. Dodd, Biden or Webb.

If Obama is the nominee I could see this election being a route and McCain losing in a landslide. His best hope is that Clinton gets the nomination. Her negatives are so high that he has a chance to defeat her.

[For-Life]

At the same time, we have to look at the last few elections. Florida and Ohio can really make the difference, again.

[harry a saake]

you have to be joking,. unless you want to lose all your liberties and if you never ever want to own a firearm again