The crashing of the US.......most interesting

[Chris Ryser]

Scope for dollar selling, investors still overweight
Fri Mar 28, 2008 9:13am EDT

By Simon Falush - Analysis

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar has dropped sharply this year but many investors still hold overweight positions and could force the greenback to new depths against the euro as they scramble to sell.

The dollar has tumbled 15 percent over the last 12 months to an all-time low of 1.59 per euro on March 17, and investors expect it to continue its slide.

The U.S. economy has been battered by a collapse in the housing market and a banking sector severely wounded by the credit crunch, prompting fears of a full-blown recession.

This has caused the Federal Reserve to pump liquidity into the market and slash rates by 300 basis points since September, undermining the yield appeal of the greenback and prompting heavy selling.

But many institutional investors have been left behind and still hold relatively long positions in dollars. Speculative investors like hedge funds have been quicker to adopt short positions but there is still scope for them to cut further.

This could herald fresh dollar lows against the European currency -- analysts say it could plumb the mid-1.60s level ..................................

whole article: http://www.reuters.com/article/reute...080328?sp=true

[Chris Ryser]

Paulson says U.S. economy faces a tough quarter
Thu Apr 3, 2008 5:17am EDT

By Glenn Somerville
BEIJING (Reuters) - The U.S. economy has taken a sharp turn for the worse and is facing a tough quarter, U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said on Thursday.

Speaking to reporters during a visit to Beijing, Paulson sidestepped a question on whether the economy was at risk of toppling into recession, something that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday was a possibility.

"There is no doubt we're having a tough quarter, that the economy has turned down sharply," Paulson said.

But he said a swoon in the housing sector, which was largely to blame for the rough patch, was necessary.

"We need to have this correction. It's not pleasant, but we need to have it," Paulson said in reference to declining U.S. house prices and homebuilding.

For the second day in a row, Paulson praised China for letting the yuan rise more quickly, a long-standing demand of the Bush administration.
The Chinese currency, also known as the renminbi (RMB), gained 4 percent against the dollar in the first quarter and has now risen 18 percent since July 2005, when it was depegged from the dollar.
"Although the process of adjustment is not complete, the accelerated pace of appreciation is significant and welcome, and should continue," Paulson said in a speech to the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

see whole article: http://www.reuters.com/article/newsO...K1610620080403

[Chris Ryser]

Dollar falls as U.S. economy posts job decline
Fri Apr 4, 2008 4:17pm EDT

By Steven C. Johnson

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar fell on Friday after a report showed the U.S. economy shed jobs for a third straight month, confirming fears that the country may already be in a recession.

Both the euro and yen posted gains on the greenback after the government said U.S. employers cut 80,000 jobs in March, more than expected and the biggest monthly fall in five years.

The dollar had recovered most of its earlier losses by late afternoon, however, as traders said the data did not come as a big surprise to a market that has long expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again late this month.

"The jobs data was pretty horrible, but I think yesterday's jump in weekly jobless claims gave people a good inkling that today's report was not going to be good," said Greg Salvaggio, vice president of trading at Tempus Consulting in Washington.
"Most of the ...................................

See whole story: http://www.reuters.com/article/hotSt...34683620080404

[jediron1]

Chris,

I don't think anyone is denying that today's optical market situation is not healthy, but I think people are takikng issue with the broad brush strokes.

Michigan is in terrible shape. Everybody's hurting, but they would be hurting whether the dollar was up or down. Audiyoda lost his job in April, and many more lost their jobs way before he did. Things have been bad there for a long time.

What your gloom and dooms don't take into consideration is that the whole face of optical is changing with every new buyout/merger/failing.
Of course labs will be laying off people at labs when the largest retailers have their own labs.

This is not an earth shaking news. Things are tough, but they are tough for a number of reasons, and they are not tough for everyone. Some of us, even in poverty stricken areas, are flourishing. If we're not, we don't turn to the demise of the dollar, the federal debt, nor any number of other outside factors as the reason.

I don't think Chris was taking board brush strokes. I believe he is very concerned because what ever effects US always effects Canada.

Michigan is slightly different as you pointed out it's mostly automotive driven and anytime you put all your eggs in one basket you run the risk of going belly up.

So who do you blame for optical? Why did DOC Golden sell his 140 store chain to Lux? MONEY! He was no fool he saw the hand writing on the wall. I think the only thing were saying is optical should wake up instead of sleeping. Reminds of the old Beatles song " I'm Only sleeping" that's exactly where optical industry is right now, they have their head in the sand while the big boys are looking how and where to expand. You need to find your niche and expand upon.

It's not the demise of the dollar it's the weakening of the dollar that's hurting every one because it doesn't buy as much as it use to. If you don't think the federal debt does not effect anyone then you need a crash course in economics. just my take ;)

[Chris Ryser]

I think the only thing were saying is optical should wake up instead of sleeping.

You hit the nail on the head. Nothing than a wake up call for the ones that talk nothing but high end and push most expensive products.

The unfortunate caught in a tough situation will still need glasses, but are not able to afford what they would like best and will have to get something along their budget lines.

Therefore a retailer has to be able to supply products to patients what they can afford. :finger:

[jediron1]

Well Chip, I would not call getting an education lazy. My work life is a piece of cake compared to my University education.

I agree that it is laziness though. The American economy was built on innovation. Now all I see is people being complacent with what is there. We look at GM that lost $39 Billion in its third quarter. We could blame people on not buying domestic, we could blame kids for going to school, we could blame Democrats for high taxes, but the fact is GM is producing junk compared to the competition.

Same with this whole global warming thing. I find it surprising that such a powerful nation like the US is not taking advantage of it. Research and Development versus just shutting things down is the way to go. Could be profitable.

The thing we have to remember is China, India, Indonesia, Mexico is now taking a lot of manufacturing jobs, so we have to do things they are not doing. Companies are not going to produce things in the US at a cost of $10 per unit when they can do it in Indian for $1 per unit.

I agree with both of you but we do work more than any other nation. In Europe they generally take off a whole month for vacation. Now if my figuring is right that's 30 or 31 days depending what month they use. And if I remember correctly we work the most hours per week excluding OMD's and those guys who have Wed's and Fri's and Sat. and Sundays off. WOW that is a lot of days off. Now I m ticked I want Wednesday and Friday and Saturday and Sunday off. Opps wait my wife just said who's going to pay the bills, well I guess I m not getting all those days off maybe one or two.

just my take

[Chris Ryser]

Now I m ticked I want Wednesday and Friday and Saturday and Sunday off. Opps wait my wife just said who's going to pay the bills, well I guess I m not getting all those days off maybe one or two.

Jedoron. you got a good point.................however Canada is a in between nation ...........between Europe and the USA.

While in the USA on worlks more hours than there are, in Canada there are ywice as more holidays that are obeserved by everybody, than the US.

[wabmorgan]

You hit the nail on the head. Nothing than a wake up call for the ones that talk nothing but high end and push most expensive products.

The unfortunate caught in a tough situation will still need glasses, but are not able to afford what they would like best and will have to get something along their budget lines.

Therefore a retailer has to be able to supply products to patients what they can afford. :finger:

I agree!!!!!!!!!! I often says, "A sale is better then NO SALE"

Meaning more or less what you just said. I would rather sell SOMETHING rather than NOTHING!!!!!!!!

[jediron1]

I agree!!!!!!!!!! I often says, "A sale is better then NO SALE"

Meaning more or less what you just said. I would rather sell SOMETHING rather than NOTHING!!!!!!!!

I once worked for a DOC that wanted only high priced sales and I had a gentleman in who said I can't afford what you want to sell me. So I came up with a package for a frame and lenses for a total of $75 for frame and lens,now granted this was a plastic frame with plastic st.top 28 but still I did what I had to so this person would not walk with out buying anything. I told the DOC the story and he said it's better than them going some where else and $75 is better than nothing.

[Chris Ryser]

Fed minutes: Severe downturn possible

Tue Apr 8, 2008 2:47pm EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Members of the Federal Reserve's policy-setting committee worried at their most recent meeting that housing and financial market stress could trigger a nasty slide in the economy, even as inflation pushed higher, minutes of the meeting released on Tuesday show.

"Some believed that a prolonged and severe economic downturn could not be ruled out given the further restriction of credit availability and ongoing weakness in the housing market," minutes of the March 18 meeting said.
A staff forecast buttressed that somber outlook, projecting "a contraction of real GDP in the first half of 2008 followed by a slow rise in the second half," the report said.

At the same time, Fed officials found recent inflation reports "disappointing," noting also with concern that some indicators of inflation expectations were edging higher.

Policy-makers said there were limits to what could be done through interest rate cuts to deal with problems underlying the collapsed housing market and the credit crunch, but agreed trimming borrowing costs might provide some help.

However, Fed officials said it would be hard to calibrate policy responses because their aggressive rate cuts in recent months would take some time to show their effects on economic activity.

See whole article: http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv...00005820080408

[Chris Ryser]

Poor get poorer as recession threat looms: report
Wed Apr 9, 2008 4:26am EDT

By Lisa Lambert

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The gap between rich and poor in many states has broadened at a quickening pace since the last U.S. recession, which could make it difficult for low-income families to weather the current economic downturn, according to a report issued Wednesday.

Since the late 1990's average incomes have declined 2.5 percent for families on the bottom fifth of the country's economic ladder, while incomes have increased 9.1 percent for families on the top fifth, said the report from the liberal-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and Economic Policy Institute.

The result is that the average incomes of the top five percent of families are 12 times the average incomes of the bottom 20 percent.

"The report's bottom line is that since the late 1980's income gaps widened in 37 states and have not narrowed in any states," said Jared Bernstein, one of the report's authors. "In fact, we've found that the trend toward growing inequality has accelerated during this decade."

Meanwhile, the middle class has remained virtually stagnant, with average incomes growing by just 1.3 percent in nearly eight years, the report said.
The report drew from 20 years of U.S. Census Bureau data collected from 1987 through 2006 on post-federal tax changes in real incomes, and is one of the few to record income inequality on a state-by-state basis. It did not include capital gains and losses in its calculations.

The technology boom and economic expansion of the late 1990's put many lower-income families in better positions at the start of the 2001 economic downturn than they are in ..............................................

See whole article: http://www.reuters.com/article/domes...38901420080409

[jediron1]

Woah, really? I wish our gas was that cheap :( That works out to be about $0.85/L if I did my math right. Gas was $1.09/L Today, which works out to be what... $4.20/gal? Bleh. It's always amazed me as to why Gas is cheaper in the states than it is in Canada... considering the states gets more crude from Canada than any other country. :(

AK have you seen anything else go up besides gas being so high? Our milk and bread in the states and other commodities have shot way up. In 1973 when driving my Corvair to college I could get 3 gal's for $.75!

[Chris Ryser]

AK have you seen anything else go up besides gas being so high? Our milk and bread in the states and other commodities have shot way up. In 1973 when driving my Corvair to college I could get 3 gal's for $.75!

I was in Montreal over the weekend and Gas went up to $ 4.72 a US gallon. While prices have gone up in the USA they are much higher in Canada on a overall basiss.

[jediron1]

I was in Montreal over the weekend and Gas went up to $ 4.72 a US gallon. While prices have gone up in the USA they are much higher in Canada on a overall basiss.

Chris that is true has been which I can't figure since we get a great portion of petrol from Canada. In one local paper in the US it says:"Pump prices have us over a barrel" but in the same breath it says: "Despite run-up to record levels, demand barely BLIPS downward" The demand is still there and as long as demand stays high the big gas boys will not lower the price. Did you see the record profits the big oil companies like Mobil recorded? They should be ashamed of them selfs for gouging every one at every pump they own. They don't even have to use a gun, they just point to the pump and say " go for it make my day" I guess now instead of the bank barons of the past we now have the new robber gas barons.

just my take

[For-Life]

This is why we have to stop giving the demand. We need to cut back. Get off the SUVs, walk more, use the bus, use the bike. Heck, two of those options have even better rewards.

[jediron1]

This is why we have to stop giving the demand. We need to cut back. Get off the SUVs, walk more, use the bus, use the bike. Heck, two of those options have even better rewards.

I totally agree. Problem is getting the wrest of the US agreeing and willing to do something. Instead they would rather drive their SUV's slurp a cup of coffee and have a donut. So they use a ton of gas, get out of shape and wonder why they just had a heart attack and are paying $3.45 per gal. for gas. Go figure!

just my take

[Chris Ryser]

This is why we have to stop giving the demand. We need to cut back. Get off the SUVs, walk more, use the bus, use the bike. Heck, two of those options have even better rewards.

Maybe the people on this continent will copying the Europeans soon, by using Scooters to go to the shopping center..........translates into less than a gallon (4L) eery 2 weeks and you get there fast and back, at least in summer. I have a couple of those Kawasaki and Yamahas and always made good use of them.

[Chris Ryser]

Chris that is true has been which I can't figure since we get a great portion of petrol from Canada.

Abig part is now made from oil sands which is very expensive to produce and before the prices went up they could not sell it. Now it fits in their program just fine

[Leo Hadley Jr]

It cost me almost $19.00 to fill my tank today!!!!

[For-Life]

Maybe the people on this continent will copying the Europeans soon, by using Scooters to go to the shopping center..........translates into less than a gallon (4L) eery 2 weeks and you get there fast and back, at least in summer. I have a couple of those Kawasaki and Yamahas and always made good use of them.

It will even be interesting to see how and where people decide to move. If you commute an hour every day, that is a lot of gas.

[Chris Ryser]

It will even be interesting to see how and where people decide to move. If you commute an hour every day, that is a lot of gas.

You might have a point........moving back to the inner cores of town. Moving close to work, if you don't have to worry to loose the job.

It cost me almost $19.00 to fill my tank today!!!!

I see that Leo................but again your driving a gaz guzzler Scooter by the name of Harley.

My Bergman only takes about $ 7.00 for full fill-up.

[For-Life]

A few years ago I switched from an older 6 cyl to a 4 cyl. The 6 cyl would cost me about $45 to fill up and the 4 cly cost me about $25. Now, I am sure the 6 would cost about $90, because my 4 costs around $50.

Huge differences, but boy did I save a lot of money.


Keep in mind that we could also be gas wise. If you speed, you burn more gas. If you drive inconstantly (40 to 60 to 40 to 60), you burn more gas. Keep it the speed limit and do not fluctuate.

[Chris Ryser]

Retailers turn in dreary March sales

Thu Apr 10, 2008 10:44am EDT

By Nicole Maestri
NEW YORK (Reuters) - An early Easter holiday, chilly weather and recession-wary consumers combined to deliver dismal March sales results for U.S. retailers.

Retail chains including Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Kohl's Corp (KSS.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Gap Inc (GPS.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Abercrombie & Fitch Co (ANF.N: Quote, Profile, Research) reported monthly sales figures on Thursday that missed already low Wall Street expectations.

"Any discretionary-related type retailers really took it on the chin this month," said Ken Perkins, president of Retail Metrics Inc.
"We are seeing a significant slowdown here in consumer spending. It really seems to have picked up steam in the last couple of months."

A bright spot amid the dreary results were warehouse club operators Costco Wholesale Corp (COST.O: Quote, Profile, Research) and BJ's Wholesale Club Inc (BJ.N: Quote, Profile, Research). Their March sales were stronger than expected as shoppers headed to warehouse locations to fill their tanks at the club's less-expensive gas stations.

While Wal-Mart's 0.7 percent rise in March sales at U.S. stores open at least a year was below .......................................................

See whole story: http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv...44566720080410

[jediron1]

A few years ago I switched from an older 6 cyl to a 4 cyl. The 6 cyl would cost me about $45 to fill up and the 4 cly cost me about $25. Now, I am sure the 6 would cost about $90, because my 4 costs around $50.

Huge differences, but boy did I save a lot of money.


Keep in mind that we could also be gas wise. If you speed, you burn more gas. If you drive inconstantly (40 to 60 to 40 to 60), you burn more gas. Keep it the speed limit and do not fluctuate.

I went to a meeting a couple weeks ago and my daughter let me borrow her Passat. I was amazed at the mileage. At 70 mph I still got 30.1 miles per gal. Now I slowed to 65 and got 30.6. So I figured if I were to go 55 or 60
I could probable have gotten 35 to 37 miles per gal. Pretty impressive in that Passat.

[Chris Ryser]

April consumer confidence slumps to 26-year low

Fri Apr 11, 2008 10:33am EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence fell to its lowest in more than a quarter century in early April, diving deeper into recessionary territory on heightened worries over inflation and jobs, a survey showed on Friday.

The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its preliminary index of confidence fell to 63.2 in April from 69.5 in March. This was well below economists' median expectation of a reading of 69.0, according to a Reuters poll.

The April result is the lowest since March 1982's level of 62.0, when the "stagflationary" period of low growth and high inflation was still fresh in the memory of many Americans.

"There have only been a dozen other surveys that have recorded a lower level of consumer sentiment in the more than 50-year history of the survey," The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said in a statement.

"Persistently high food and fuel prices as well as rising unemployment have caused consumers to view their future financial prospect more negatively (than) any other time since 1980."

The report showed its reading on one-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.8 percent -- the highest since a similar reading in October 1990 -- from 4.3 percent in March.

See whole article:http://www.reuters.com/article/hotSt...080411?sp=true