The crashing of the US.......most interesting

[Chris Ryser]

Surprise Fed rate cut shakes dollar
Tue Jan 22, 2008 2:45pm EST


By Vivianne Rodrigues

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar tumbled against major currencies except the yen on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve unexpectedly slashed its benchmark overnight lending rate in an attempt to allay market fears of a U.S. recession.

The Fed's emergency move to cut rates by three quarters of a percentage point was precipitated by a global equities rout.

The U.S. central bank's move wiped out the dollar's yield advantage over the euro, with the federal funds rate target now at 3.5 percent and official euro zone interest rates at 4 percent. This put the European currency on track to post its biggest one-day gain against the dollar in two years...................................

whole article: http://www.reuters.com/article/hotSt...ST690520080122

[Chris Ryser]

Economy woes batter global stocks
Mon Jan 28, 2008 5:54am EST

By Jeremy Gaunt, European Investment Correspondent

LONDON (Reuters) - Persistent fears about the world economy battered global stocks again on Monday and drove investors towards safer assets despite expectations of more interest cuts from the Federal Reserve to bolster growth.

Equity markets in Europe and Asia fell sharply with Japan's Nikkei dropping nearly 4 percent on worries that the U.S. economy was already dragging Japan's down into recession.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was down 1.3 percent, taking January's losses alone to near 13 percent.

"People remain pretty nervous. We haven't seen the full extent of the fall out of subprime," said Jan Smedts, deputy head of equities for Dexia Group, referring to losses and turmoil in the U.S. mortgage sector.

Whole stort: http://www.reuters.com/article/newsO...45612820080128

[Paul E. Carbonate]

What exactly is your point, Chris? You keep hammering on this theme and of course if you predict ANY economic change (whether for good or ill) over a long enough time period, your "predictions" will eventually come true.
You've predicted an imminent recession over and over and one didn't come in the time period you described--now that there may be a recession you think you're Nostradamus?
I can only assume that your recession obsession has something to with having a convenient excuse for the lack of interest in your products.

[Leo Hadley Jr]

[Chris Ryser]

What exactly is your point, Chris? You keep hammering on this theme.......................................... .

........................I can only assume that your recession obsession has something to with having a convenient excuse for the lack of interest in your products.

Mr Carbonate

In your other thread you said:

"My question is, how do I learn that? Or better yet, how do I find someone with those skills? It seems the traditional optician is a dying breed, and yet there is a very well-heeled market for the services such an optician can provide.
I don't have time to go to school so that's out of the question"


And here is the answer.....................

I did go to school, I am a good optician, I can solder and repair frames as well as even make frames in metal as well as in plastic. There are even a few patents registered in my name.

So actually your problem will start when people have the bad luck of having their houses foreclosed, are loosing their jobs and have to tighten their belts. At that stage you will have to start repairing glasses because your customers can not afford any new ones. You will have put new lenses into old frames.

You will have to retrain you staff to adapt to the fact that the expensive high priced stuff will loose out to the less expensive frames and lenses.

You will think of cutting your own lenses and do other work you have been paying for because it did not matter to pay others for services you could have done yourself. Maybe it would be a wise investment to purchase some used equipment

My post's about a sinking economy are a reminder to opticians that facing harder times well prepared for, is better than ignore it.

Your assumption in above quote is in direct conflict with your other post looking to become a real optician. Could it be that you already are feeling the pinch?

:hammer:

[Emery]

Chris...

I do agree that we need to be prepared for anything that may come our way. Successful businesses adapt and overcome in the face of adversity. Also, bravo on your comments to Mr. Carbonate.

There are some real concerns like the overseas markets, the strength of the dollar, the fact that frame manufacturers have to keep raising their prices due to the weakness of the dollar in the global marketplace.

Although, let's remember, in the last article you posted, the first two words were "persistent fears". What happened to "We have nothing to fear but fear itself"? I am not an economist, but I do follow the economy and I believe this still holds true to some extent today. I'm not discounting the realities that real people face, the housing market, the foreclosures, etc.

Also, they just released the growth numbers from Q4 of 2007 and while the growth is anemic at .6%, it is still growth. A recession is only able to be defined in the middle, or after you have been through it, because the definition of recession is consecutive quarters of decline. We are in the midst of a slow-down, not a recession.

[Chris Ryser]

Economic growth in '07 weakest in five years
Wed Jan 30, 2008 9:53am EST

By Glenn Somerville

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. growth skidded lower in the fourth quarter and was the weakest in five years for all of 2007, according to a government report on Wednesday that highlighted the toll an enfeebled housing sector has taken on the national economy.

The Commerce Department said gross domestic product, which measures total goods and services output within U.S. borders, edged up at a weaker-than-expected 0.6 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter and for the full year advanced only 2.2 percent - the slowest growth in annual GDP since 1.6 percent in 2002.

Analysts surveyed by Reuters had forecast that fourth-quarter GDP would grow at a 1.2 percent rate. The lackluster fourth quarter performance followed a booming third quarter when GDP surged at a 4.9 ..................

see whole article: http://www.reuters.com/article/topNe...61379420080130

[GOS_Queen]

Fiscal Follies

http://mises.org/story/2859

I especially like the table that shows the changes (deficit, gas prices, gold prices, military spending, etc) from 2000 to 2007

[Paul E. Carbonate]

Could it be that you already are feeling the pinch?

This is painful, but...You're right to some extent. I think the skills you have, the skills I want, will indeed become more important in the next couple of years.
However, I want those skills to serve patients who really need to get another year out of their frames as well as the affluent patients who want to keep their vintage frame or have one custom made.
I stand by my comment that if you keep predicting an economic turn in one direction or another for a long enough time, you'll eventually be right.
I haven't looked at the archives here long-term, but I'll bet if we put an S&P chart up against your predictions we'd say that you were almost always wrong.
The trend of the American economy has been up for over 80 years. Short term, I think you're right--but using your logic any optical retailer doing business on "Black Monday" (which you would have crowed about if we had internet then) would have sold his shop and missed out on a great boom in our industry.
I don't know you, but it just seems to me you have some sort of death-wish for the American economy. Which is fine, because lots of others did and have had the same wish...many of those others being Europeans who decided to immigrate into our failing economy.
I wish I had your skills, but I sure as heck wouldn't ask you for a hot stock tip, friend.
Best wishes and thanks for all the stuff you've contributed to the archives here--it's basically an optical college for free online and you've been a big part of it.

[Chris Ryser]

This is painful, but...You're right to some extent. I think the skills you have, the skills I want, will indeed become more important in the next couple of years........................................

I wish I had your skills, but I sure as heck wouldn't ask you for a hot stock tip, friend.

Thnks for all the stuff you've contributed to the archives here--it's basically an optical college for free online and you've been a big part of it.

Since I got burned at some point on the stock market I have kept away and have become an under the mattress saver.

.............and the rest is not predictions and wishes, they are facts news that just happened. You make your own deductions,,,,,,,,,however if you are not prepared for any hard times by being able to help people through rough periods, they will remember you when it all gets better again.

[Chris Ryser]

Option ARMs, next chapter in housing crisis

Fri Feb 1, 2008 3:24am EST

By Nick Carey

CHICAGO (Reuters) - The U.S. housing crisis has focused attention on adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) and the danger posed by their spiking interest rates.

But mortgage bankers, industry experts and nonprofit officials say that the impact of one particularly nasty kind of ARM -- called the Option ARM -- involving hundreds of billions of dollars of loans has yet to be felt. And, they say, it will hit prime borrowers and subprime borrowers alike.
People like Bruce Rose, 53, who never should have got a loan.

Rose, 53, bought his home in Boston in 1986. After stress and depression forced him to retire as a state employee in April 2006 he "maxed out" his credit cards on his annual income of around $16,000.

On medication, he refinanced his debts through the largest U.S. mortgage lender, Countrywide Financial Corp. The new loan totaled $439,000. Rose said he did not know his mortgage broker and Countrywide used a stated income loan -- also called a "liar loan" because no proof of income is required -- and that they claimed his monthly income was $12,166.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

whole article at: http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv...36651820080201

[Chris Ryser]

Services index plummets, points to recession
Tue Feb 5, 2008 10:53am EST


By Pedro Nicolaci da Costa

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. services sector retrenched sharply in January to levels not seen since the 2001 recession, renewing fears about an economic slump, according to a survey released on Tuesday.

The Institute for Supply Management's index of non-manufacturing plummeted to 41.9 from 54.4 in December, its largest monthly decline on record and a far greater drop than Wall Street expected. A Reuters poll of economists had produced a median expectation of a slip to 53.0

"The recession has indeed arrived," said Jane Caron, chief economic strategist at Dwight Asset Management in Burlington, Vermont.
A reading below 50 indicates contraction, and bond prices jumped as the figures reinforced investors' conviction that the U.S. economy is already in recession. Stocks sold off.

The employment index fell to 43.9 from 51.8, corroborating last week's dire U.S. payrolls report, which showed the first net monthly contraction in the labor market in more than four years.....................................

See whole article: http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv...EN379020080205

[Chris Ryser]

Wall Street skids about 3 percent on recession sign
Wed Feb 6, 2008 12:45am EST


By Jennifer Coogan

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks suffered their biggest drop in nearly a year on Tuesday after data showed the worst monthly contraction in the services sector since the last U.S. recession and Standard & Poor's warned it could cut bank credit ratings.

The Dow and S&P 500 had their biggest drops since February 27, 2007. All 30 Dow stocks fell and only 17 of the 500 components on the S&P closed higher.

Recession fears slammed sectors across the board, ranging from telecommunications to energy. Banks and other financial services stocks fell particularly hard after S&P said any loss of a top credit rating by a major bond insurer could force banks to put hobbled bonds back on their balance sheets, curtailing funds available for basic lending.

whole article: http://www.reuters.com/article/hotSt...88041320080206

[Paul E. Carbonate]

My company has been in business over 100 years...so I think they might know a thing or two about economic trends. No recession on our end--we're hiring more, selling more, and doing great.
You do realize that even during the depression of the 1930's not every business failed, right? It was a catastrophic economic decline and yet America survived it.
You're drooling at the prospect of mass suffering in this country, but it just isn't going to happen. We have checks in place, and the global economy provides checks, that ensure we're not going to enter a new dark age.
I know you imagine that every optician will soon be evaluating patients as potential food sources for a cannabalistic dystopia to come, but I'm fairly confident I'll still be having pizza rather than patients for lunch ten years from now.
And if it really did all go to crap as you predict...there's starving men in the streets with shotguns, 90-percent unemployment, desperate people with no prospects for a living...You think your skills as an OPTICIAN will somehow save you???
That may well be the most bizarre part of your vision for the future. We're murdering each other over a gallon of gas and you're prospering by replacing a temple tip here and there.
I have my bizarre ideation as well, so don't take this personally. If not for the meds I'd probably agree with you.

[Chris Ryser]

I have my bizarre ideation as well, so don't take this personally. If not for the meds I'd probably agree with you.

I am fully aware that this chronology which is pure fact is not funny and not supposed to be.

It is purely meant as a warning that at least some poeple on this board take proper precautions to deal with a commercial and professional situation whenever it might happen.

My father, an optician back in neutral Switzerland ourchased a 5 years supply on stock lenses in 1935 at the outbreak of world war II and was the only optician in a 100 mile radius that still could serve everybody with lenses after 2 years into the war.

[Chris Ryser]

Corporate profit concerns drive global shares lower
Thu Feb 7, 2008 4:11am EST


Natsuko Waki
LONDON (Reuters) - European and Asian shares fell while the yen ticked higher on Thursday after warnings from major technology firms added to concerns that a slowing U.S. economy might hurt corporate earnings globally.

Tech shares suffered in particular after network equipment maker Cisco Systems (CSCO.O: Quote, Profile, Research) late on Wednesday forecast disappointing third-quarter revenue growth, citing economic concerns. German chipmaker Infineon (IFXGn.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) also warned of further losses at its phone chips unit.................................

The six-month-old credit crunch, stemming from mass defaults on U.S. subprime mortgages, has hit corporate profits and threatens to kick the world's largest economy into recession.

see article: http://www.reuters.com/article/hotSt...13871520080207

[gemstone]

Guess we will have to put off making Canada a state for a little while.

[For-Life]

Guess we will have to put off making Canada a state for a little while.

:finger:

[Chris Ryser]

Data suggest economy stagnating
Thu Feb 7, 2008 1:40pm EST


By Joanne Morrison

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The housing market has still not reached bottom, the number of workers drawing jobless benefits has hit a 2-1/4-year high and consumers are tightening their purse strings, reports on Thursday showed, suggesting the economy may have screeched to a halt.
Pending sales of previously owned homes fell by 1.5 percent in December and were off a sharp 24 percent from a year ago, the National Association of Realtors said.

Separately, the Labor Department said new claims for unemployment aid edged down from a two-year high last week but the number of workers remaining on the benefit rolls has reached a level not seen since October 2005 in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.

On the retail front, a spate of reports from key chain stores like Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Target Corp (TGT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) showed consumers have pulled back on spending.

See whole story: http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv...AS984120080207

[Chris Ryser]

U.S. Recession Is Now an Even Bet as Spending Slows (Update1)
By Shobhana Chandra and Andy Burt

......................The economy lost 17,000 jobs in January, the first drop in more than four years. The unemployment rate will gradually rise to 5.2 percent by the second quarter of 2008, according to the survey median, from last month's 4.9 percent.
Five of the top six automakers in the U.S., including Ford Motor Co. and Toyota Motor Corp., posted a drop in U.S. sales in January, reinforcing forecasts that industry sales will fall this year to the lowest since 1998.

`Drying Up'

``If the job market is drying up, which seems to be the case, consumers have nothing going for them,'' said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. in New York.
Big-ticket items aren't the only ones taking a hit. Retail sales at stores open at least a year rose 0.5 percent last month, the worst January since 1970, the International Council of Shopping Centers said yesterday. Discounts failed to avert declines at chains from Target Corp. to Nordstrom Inc.
``It is a difficult retail environment out there, and I expect it will be going forward,'' Terry Lundgren, chief executive officer of Macy's Inc., the second-biggest U.S. department-store chain, said this week. The retailer cut its fourth-quarter profit forecast and said it will eliminate 2,300 jobs. ...............

whole article: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...C3c&refer=home

[jediron1]

[quote=Paul E. Carbonate;226158]This is painful, but...You're right to some extent. I think the skills you have, the skills I want, will indeed become more important in the next couple of years.
However, I want those skills to serve patients who really need to get another year out of their frames as well as the affluent patients who want to keep their vintage frame or have one custom made.


:D

[tmorse]

You're drooling at the prospect of mass suffering in this country...

What an idiotic statement!!

[Chris Ryser]

Growth worries batter global stocks
Mon Feb 11, 2008 4:52am EST


By Jeremy Gaunt, European Investment Correspondent

LONDON (Reuters) - Worries about a deeper global economic slowdown than expected battered equities on Monday and hit the dollar while commodity prices soared, adding fears of inflation to the mix.
Finance leaders from the Group of Seven major economies said at the weekend that the crumbling U.S. housing market had hurt the world economy and that conditions may worsen as debt-laden banks clamp down on credit.

At least partly in response, MSCI's main index of world stocks was down 0.2 percent, taking year-to-date losses to more than 11 percent, and its emerging market stock counterpart was down 1.5 percent on the day.
"One message that came out of the G7 statement over the weekend is that global growth is expected to slow, and it will be a much broader slowing than originally anticipated," said Adam Myers, market strategist at Credit Suisse. ...............................

whole article: http://www.reuters.com/article/hotSt...25973520080211

[Chris Ryser]

GM offers all U.S. union workers buyouts
Tue Feb 12, 2008 7:46am EST

By David Bailey
DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Corp will offer buyouts or early retirements to all 74,000 U.S. hourly workers represented by the United Auto Workers in a sweeping deal with the union intended to clear the way for GM to hire lower-cost replacements.

The cost-saving agreement follows on a program launched in January for about 5,200 workers at GM's service parts and operations facilities across the United States and five other facilities, and comes with better terms than GM offered to UAW workers in 2006.

GM representatives said it would take weeks to roll out the complicated buyout offers to its workers, who will have 45 days to consider them and then seven days to reconsider. It expects to complete the voluntary program by July 1.

see whole article; http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv...17099220080212

[optirep]

Wall Street higher after retail sales report

Consumer to keep spending in the face of economic uncertainty

Market update
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updated 25 minutes ago

NEW YORK - Wall Street moved higher Wednesday after the Commerce Department reported an unexpected increase in retail sales last month and eased some concerns about consumers' willingness to spend despite economic uncertainty. The Dow lately went up more than 100 points.
The 0.3 percent rise in January retail sales, which followed a drop during December, alleviated some of Wall Street's worries that consumers were retrenching because of rising fuel prices, a faltering real estate sector and a choppy stock market. Analysts had expected a 0.3 percent decline in January sales.
However, another report from the department showed that U.S. business inventories grew a little more than expected in December. The data was a sign of an involuntary buildup of unsold goods on store shelves amid the economic slowdown.


The report was not enough to offset optimism during the session. Stocks have mostly risen in recent sessions as investors tried to determine whether Wall Street has reached a bottom or whether further sluggishness in the economy will send stocks lower.

"So far this week there has been a positive bias, but I think what you're seeing is people taking a very cautious approach," said Scott Fullman, director of investment strategy at I.A. Englander & Co. "There is no great rush to jump in, and the preservation of capital is more important than growth at this moment."

He also said investors were encouraged by the government's latest plan to help homeowners falling behind on mortgage payments. U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Wednesday he believes the economy will remain on a growth path, and pledged "aggressive action" to help troubled homeowners.

In midday trading, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 110.55, or 0.89 percent, to 12,483.96. The blue chip index was at its highs of the session.

Broader indexes also moved higher. The Standard & Poor's 500 index added 10.39, or 0.77 percent, to 1,359.25; and the Nasdaq composite rose 35.29, or 1.52 percent, 2,355.33.

Bond prices were unchanged, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, at 3.67. The dollar was mixed against other major currencies.

Light, sweet crude oil rose 40 cents to $93.18 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The International Energy Agency cut its oil demand forecasts for this year due to the weakening U.S. economy.

In corporate news, Coca-Cola Co. said its fourth-quarter earnings jumped 79 percent amid a 24 percent increase in revenue. The world's biggest beverage producer cited growth in its key soft-drink brands as well as in its water, sports drink and orange juice businesses. Coke fell 52 cents to $59.37.




Applied Materials, the largest maker of semiconductor equipment, led technology stocks higher after it reported a surge in orders for machines that make flat screens. Shares of the company rose $1.29, or 7.1 percent, to $19.36.
Deere & Co. said fiscal first-quarter profit increased 54 percent as the heavy equipment maker posted strong international sales. However, shares fell $1.19 to $85.30.
Waste Management Inc. rose 69 cents to $33.82 after reporting its fourth-quarter earnings increased 26 percent. The nation's largest garbage hauler got a bounce from tax benefits and the sale of some operations. However, fuel prices ate into profits.

Also, the state oil company of Venezuela said it has halted sales of crude to Exxon Mobil Corp. in response to the U.S. company's drive to use the courts to seize billions of dollars in Venezuelan assets. The oil company rose 93 cents to $85.31.

The Russell 200 index of smaller companies rose 10.71, or 1.52 percent, to 716.19.

Advancing issues led decliners by a 3 to 2 margin on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 573.2 million shares.

Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average closed up 0.16 percent. In afternoon trading, Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.15 percent, Germany's DAX index rose 0.40 percent, and France's CAC-40 rose 0.76 percent.