There are those that would say that churches are a causality of crime. They are often broken into, burned, of graffittied. On occation their clergy are involved in some some sort of sexual misgivings...Originally Posted by 1968
However I didn't say I disagreed with the misnomer that "correlation equals causation".
I stand by "correlation means there is a chance." Especially when is comes to homosexuality and pedophilia, or pederasty.
I must commend you. In this thread you have been accused of being nasty, having a negative tone, attacking others, and posting things that are incorrrect. All of which are false accusations. I must admit I just don't have the stamina to take on those of that persuation anymore.
Keep it up.
You are entitled to your opinion.
As long as an offensive post is an opinion, I rest my case.
Stand by it then. I'm not about to argue with you about basic statistical concepts.
How does one argue about correlation? I suppose since it doesn't mean anything, people who look for one are looking in the wrong place? The whole concept should be thrrown out then.
Correlation means there is a chance.
correlation
1 : the state or relation of being correlated; specifically : a relation existing between phenomena or things or between mathematical or statistical variables which tend to vary, be associated, or occur together in a way not expected on the basis of chance alone <the obviously high positive correlation between scholastic aptitude and college entrance -- J. B. Conant>
On the subject of correlation, regarding any subject matter, mrba could be correct unless non-correlation is tested.
Also pertaining to correlation fallacies, perhaps Post hoc ergo propter hoc, would be more appropriate to our discussion in this thread. ( Of course, I could be wrong; it's been a long time since I've actually had to think about official terms for logic.)
It sounds like you are saying there is a correlation between two variables unless you test to determine that there is not a correlation between two variables. Please rephrase because that doesn't make any sense to me. What is true is that correlation is necessary for causation, but correlation does not equal causation. [See aforemention example regarding the correlation between the number of churches in a community and the amount of crime in a community. Alternatively, insert "ice cream sales" for "churches".]
No, you are right. "Correlation does not equal causation" is precisely why "after the fact therefore because of the fact" is a fallacy. Both phrases are relevant to the discussion.
Last edited by 1968; 11-12-2004 at 08:46 PM. Reason: Added "to the discussion".
Correlation is a necessary but not a sufficient condition to make causal inferences with reasonable confidence. Also necessary is an appropriate method of data collection. To make such causal inferences one must gather the data by experimental means, controlling extraneous variables which might confound the results. Having gathered the data in this fashion, if one can establish that the experimentally manipulated variable is correlated with the dependent variable (and that correlation does not need to be linear), then one should be (somewhat) comfortable in making a causal inference. That is, when the data have been gathered by experimental means and confounds have been eliminated, correlation does imply causation ...
... "imply." Today this word is used most often to mean "to hint" or "to suggest" rather than "to have as a necessary part." Accordingly, I argue that correlation does imply (hint at) causation, even when the correlation is observed in data not collected by experimental means. Of course, with nonexperimental models, the potential causal explanations of the observed correlation between X and Y must include models that involve additional variables and which differ with respect to which events are causes and which effects.
I guess I mean you must test both observational and experimental hypothesis. Again, I might be way off here. Reading through this thread and looking at the numbers we've posted, we have been making observations so mrba may be correct. Does anyone have references to actual cause & effect statistics?
Question,would the AIDS epidemic have happened no matter which group was affected first?
Well in the end I suppose we all do each other.Question,would the AIDS epidemic have happened no matter which group was affected first?
Why does one bring up the chicken or the egg Jo Jo?
Probably.
Those are not your words, Jo. Please cite your references when copying and pasting information because referencing the source [ http://core.ecu.edu/psyc/wuenschk/StatHelp/Correlation-Causation.htm ] will allow others to see those comments in full context.
mrba said “correlation means there is a chance”. That article does not support that definition of “correlation”.
You posted negative comment seven times in post 1 thru 30 attacking any opinion other than your own including mine. Only after post after post did I respond negatively to you in the statements above in post #31.
By the way if all of your personal sidetracks are on topics exactly what post were your refering to when you stated to Karen that "others just can't stick to the issues"? ( I personally can't relate abortion to SSM since it's pretty difficult for that group to get pregnant.)
Finally back on topic - Nope - Trends of the liberal court, health care insurance cost and an increase in aids.
Rep
Last edited by rep; 11-14-2004 at 12:33 AM.
Your reference is not truthful, nor an accurate picture of what transpired.
The reference from NBC4 states that Aids funding for prevention programs have been cut in Washington, DC by $1,000,000.
The second reference you quote is from the San Francisco Chronicle. It is much more enlightening and gives hints of the real story. It states that:
- The cuts in question were Ryan White care grants.
- He said they expected a cut of 5%.
- It also stated that there was a 17.5% increase in New York City.
Conclusion – while these are cuts in these specific city’s programs they are not overall cuts in Aids funding. As stated in the article these allocations of aids funds are determined by how a particular city’s needs stack up against other city’s needs. There is an application process and the allocation is based on need. There was a 5 million dollar decrease in the Ryan White care grants that now total 595 million dollars. My further research shows that the 5 million dollars was reallocated from programs that prevent aids, to programs that identify those who have aids, but are unaware that they have aids. They feel this is a better method of preventing transmission than just preventive programs alone.
- It also states that Sacramento's new grant nears $3 million, an increase of almost 12 percent.
http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2003/07/26/MN260306.DTL
http://www.hivdent.org/publicp/ppFTHF042004.htm
I also happen to believe this was election year politics in two democratic cities and with grandstanding by Nancy P and Barbara Boxer to boot. Naturally the managers of those programs in those cities are upset they just lost part of their federal funding. . It is also typical liberal thinking; if you reallocate funds from one program to another your cutting funding , especially if you’re a democrat and there is a republican in the white house.
You are incorrect on how I personally feel on this subject.
As I stated previously, the only individuals bringing religion into this discussion are those who are opposed to religion. Nowhere have I referenced religion as a reason to oppose SSM.
- I feel that SSM would continue the trend already set for by the liberal courts that overturned long standing state laws on deviate sexual activity in the name of privacy. SSM is a continuation of that trend and will support the radical elements of the gay rights movement who want to allow further relaxation of standards including sex with minors, adult incest, polygamy and others in the name of “privacy rights”
- I believe based on current domestic partner insurance rates that SSM would increase the cost of health care for everyone, to catastrophic levels.
- I believe that SSM would increase the transmission rate of aids in both the homosexual and heterosexual population by legalizing a previously illegal sexual practice that has the highest transmission rate of all and has contributed to almost 500.000 cases of aids in the US.
Rep
Oops, sorry - I normally do. The same info and definitions are listed so many places I guess I figured folks would know they weren't my words.
Then I have indeed gotten lost in the terminology. Let me rewind and then you will have to let me know if you don't get what I am saying.
Rep posted data regarding the subject of pedophilia being linked to homosexuality. You posted the article stating gender specificiations regarding abuse and mentioned “Correlation does not equal causation." Mrba then wrote perhaps correlation means "good chance". I read the dialogue between the three of you folks and thought that the same arguments could be applied to a number of topics in this thread.
Folks are posting that a number of medical and social diseases are directly related to the homosexual community and that equal rights would create the downfall of society. We've gone as far as posting that pedophilia might be some type of premeditated diabolical plot on the part of a good portion of the population.
Setting opinion aside, I am trying to find or get someone here to post actual scientific, controlled studies. I say mrba may be correct based on what we have discussed here. There is a chance unless someone has information that proves other connections or disproves what we perceive to be connections between cause and effect relationships. In other words, emotionally, I can say something sounds ridiculous but how do I prove it with data.
I was going to stay out of this one as far as stating an opinion goes - too hard to remain unbiased and unemotional once you put your own thoughts on the table but...Personnally, same gender marriage doesn't hurt me. I'm straight but I understand why marriage is important for so many.
I view marriage and many other issues affecting the gay community as a modern civil rights movement so I understand why emotion runs so deep for both sides of the argument. I undertstand the longing for equal treatment and I understand the fear regarding what those equal rights means for others.
I found this to be a rather interesting article that I believe puts a very human face on most of the issues we are discussing:On the Outside Looking In
Becky Harding
17 August 2003First UU Church of Austin, Texas
SERMON
"Atticus stood up and walked to the end of the porch. When he completed his examination of the wisteria vine, he strolled back to me.
First of all, he said, if you can learn a simple trick, Scout, you'll get along a lot better with all kinds of folks. You never really understand a person until you consider things from his point of view - until you climb into his skin and walk around in it."
It's 1:28 a.m. on Wednesday, April 23rd and I am sitting in chamber room 105 at the state capitol building and I am thinking about this passage from Harper Lee's To Kill a Mockingbird. I am waiting to testify against a house bill that, if passed, would remove all foster children from the homes of any person deemed homosexual. Earlier in the evening, state representative Robert Talton introduced this legislation and actually said that the children of gays and lesbians would be better off in orphanages than in their homes. I am sincerely trying to understand things from his point of view but failing miserably.
Weeks later, I am reading Reason for Hope, by Jane Goodall and I stumble on a possible explanation for Mr. Talton's attitudes. Goodall suggests that "cultural speciation in humans means…that the members of one group, the in-group, see themselves as different from members of another group, the out-group. In its extreme form, cultural speciation leads to the dehumanizing of out-group members, so that they may come to be regarded almost as members of a different species. This frees group members from the inhibitions and social sanctions that operate within the group and enables them to direct acts toward those others which would not be tolerated within the group. Slavery and torture at one end of the scale, ridicule and ostracism at the other."
This certainly helps me understand why Mr. Talton, as chimpanzees for thousands of years before him, feels the need to figuratively twist my arms. His legislation failed, by the way. When asked what do gays, lesbians, bisexuals and transgendered people have in common, transgender professor Jenny Finney responded, "We all can get beat up by the same people." Dehumanizing indeed.
I am flooded with thoughts. How did I get here? Here, in a chamber room at the Texas State Capitol. Here, in the pulpit of the First Unitarian Universalist Church. Where have we come from? We all carry legacy of some sort. What's our role in the apparently second civil rights movement? And where are we going? Was that the Newsweek cover asking, "Is gay marriage next?"
With apologies to Sappho and Greek art, I'll start with June 27, 1969. Legend has it that the Greenwich Village tavern, the Stonewall Inn, was frequently raided by lackadaisical police officers who would gently nudge the queer crowd to move on to another locale. But that night, June 27th, stricken with grief over the death of the beloved Judy Garland, the folks, not only refused to move on, but became increasingly agitated at the thought of not being permitted to gather and mourn their diva. The riot lasted three days, and the modern g,l,b,t revolution began. Before the Stonewall riots, about a dozen gay publications existed and in just a few years, over 400 organizations and publications were out and about.
You can easily identify the club members by the rainbow stickers and flags plastered everywhere - a tribute to Judy Garland who helped start it all. Remember her theme song was "Somewhere Over the Rainbow"?
And if you don't see any rainbow strips on cars, you might find a pink triangle. If a prisoner was deemed homosexual, Nazi concentration camp officials would have a pink triangle sewn on his shirt. A black triangle identified lesbians. These symbols have, obviously, been reclaimed to honor the legacy of those before us.
And, if you are wandering through Home Depot with your good friend, Juanita, and her "gaydar" spots two women talking, she might nudge you and say, "family." This code word comes from the concept that so many members of the g,l,b,t community have been rejected by their biological families, so they claim friends as family. Yes, the dance floor is always overrun when "We Are Family" comes on the sound system.
In the early years of this movement, so many members felt isolated. So a joyous, once-a-year, tradition of PRIDE festivals began. Simply, this is a gathering where folks can be themselves and celebrate. Music, dancing, and food abound as do paraders. The idea, naturally, is that there is nothing to be ashamed of and why not be proud of yourself. Stop the dehumanizing, as it were.
So in the early days, role models were sorely lacking. Liberace used a "don't ask, don't tell" approach. Elton John even proclaimed bisexuality for years in fear of hostile reactions. And, if you were a g,l,b,t teen during this time, it would be difficult to find any role models in a mainstream movie.
Certainly, films were made. As early as 1963, Lillian Hellman's The Children's Hour featured a young Shirley McClain wrestling with her feelings for another woman. Her character, of course, upon deciding she is a lesbian, shoots herself. But lesbians didn't fret because they got a gift in the legendary film, Personal Best. Exotic Mariel Hemingway experiments with a relationship with another female track teammate and her character doesn't die, there is that career ending knee surgery.
The gentlemen didn't fare much better. The compassionate yet somber Long Time Companion chronicles the deaths of a group of friends from AIDS. Huge strides were made in understanding the gay community when Philadelphia, a beautiful and loving film, premiered, yet Tom Hanks does, indeed, die a difficult death in that film as well.
The transgendered world was opened up to us all so much more with the poignant, Boys Don't Cry. As you can tell, the not so subtle message is that g,l.b.t people do exist in the world, but it isn't an easy life. Until lately.
Slowly and surely, winds of change have blown in and we can see The Bird Cage on television or the wildly popular Will and Grace. And no one dies in the awesome Queer Eye For The Straight Guy, a delightful and kind makeover show featuring five fabulous divas.
G,l,b,t supporting characters abound on Friends, ER, Spin City, Dawson's Creek etc. And let us not ever forget the first million dollar Survivor winner was out and proud, Richard Hatch.
So what caused the change? Lots of complex elements. Acceptance came in small doses over time.
On October 12, 1998, a young gay man was hung up on a fence post and bludgeoned to death with a pistol. Matthew Shepard's death shocked and saddened almost everyone - gay and straight. Maybe people across America put themselves in his shoes - or his parent's shoes and a new commitment to tolerance and compassion seemed to be born on that cold plain in Wyoming.
So where are we now? This summer we have seen the Episcopalian church elect the first openly gay bishop. The Rev, Gene Robinson of New Hampshire, took the office with his partner standing next to him. The parishioners said they chose Robinson simply because he was the best candidate.
This summer, the United States Supreme Court overturned all sodomy laws in the Lawrence versus Texas case. According to the Lesbian, Gay Rights Lobby, "the sodomy law is used as a front for all brands of discrimination…When the Court overturned the law, it also took the opportunity to overturn all of the sodomy laws in the United States, further protecting the right to privacy between two consenting adults."
Justice Anthony Kennedy, reading from the bench, said, gays "…are entitled to respect for their private lives." Some of the gay activists and lawyers wept as they listened. This ruling gives us constitutional protection - and can be sited in other g,l,b,t court battles.
According to the July 7th edition of Newsweek, "the battle over gay marriage, gay adoption, gays in the military and gays in the workplace - will be fought out court to court, state to state for years to come. Nonetheless, there is no question that the Lawrence case represents a sea of change, not just in the Supreme Court, a normally cautious institution, but also in society as a whole." David Garrow, a legal scholar at Emory University said, "The case is maybe one of the two most important opinions of the last 100 years."
For the first time in my lifetime, the talk of gay marriage seems very attainable. Gay marriage that would give my partner and I our civil right - a marriage license that gives individuals access to the responsibilities, protections and support government provides to families.
We are fortunate that her company offers health benefits to same sex couples, but what about most of our friends whose companies don't? There are many advantages to gay marriage but healthcare tops my list
All of this is wonderful and I don't want to spoil the celebration, but you and I both know that backlash is a powerful wave. The conservative forces are going to, in all probability, push for an amendment to the U.S. Constitution defining marriage as a union between a man and a woman. Jerry Falwell has said, "the only way to put the traditional biblical family form of one man married to one woman safely out of reach of future courts and legislatures, is to pass an amendment to the U.S. Constitution." Dehumanizing indeed.
My friends, I think we are preparing for a war. So what can you and I do? Clearly, we all can reduce the climate of fear and create an environment of acceptance. Those of us in the g,l,b,t community need to be "out," showing the world, our next door neighbors, the letter carrier, that there is nothing to fear from our community. Our similarities are probably more abundant than our differences.
The straight community can speak up when "dehumanizing" behaviors prevail. Even the smallest acts send a message. So I was glad to se that when Jeremy Shockley called Dallas Cowboys coach Bill Parcells, "a homo," most people were disgusted. But not enough. Cathy Renna of the Gay and Lesbian Alliance Against Defamation said, "It's a reflection that it's still ok to use that language." Esera Tuaolo, who came out after he played nine seasons in the NFL added, "To the players and coaches, it's no big deal, but for someone like me, it is a big deal. That's one of the things we need to change. It's a spoken language we need to change."
As a school teacher, I suspect I heard the word "gay" or "lesbian" or some other slang form used in a derogatory way nearly every day I taught. Each time, I would stop and take the time to, in a nurturing way, teach the child a little bit of tolerance. The sad piece is that most of the time, these children really didn't think they were saying something wrong.
We must all speak up! A good friend of mine was telling another mother about her two and a half year old daughter's kissing episode with another little girl and the mother smiled and said, "Oh, don't worry - that's age appropriate." My friend smiled back and said, "Yes. At any age." That's speaking up.
Of course, when the amendment process heats up, we must all join together and be activists. Write letters, make phone calls, send emails, join the Lesbian and Gay Rights Lobby. Get involved and get other people you love involved as well because GAY RIGHTS ARE CIVIL RIGHTS! In the days of Apartheid, Nelson Mandela argued, "No one is really free until all those in South Africa are free." I believe that applies here! No one can enjoy the freedom of governmental rights until all of us can. Maybe this is the second wave of the civil rights movement. I remember white people died beside black people. Hopefully no one will die this time.
"An eye for an eye only leads to more blindness," Margaret Atwood suggests. We must use tolerance and compassion to overcome ignorance and hatred. The Taoist believe "these three qualities are invaluable - a sense of equality, material simplicity, and compassion for all creatures." The Delany Sisters, two African-American women who lived well into their 100's wrote, "The most important thing is to teach your child compassion. A complete human being is one who can put himself in another's shoes."
It is important to remember that Matthew Shepard's parents forgave their son's killers. In that spirit, I have invited Rep. Talton to my home for dinner. Twice. So he can see us, know us, and not fear us. So far, I haven't heard back but I'm going to keep trying.
As I drove home from the evening at the capitol, I asked myself why was I there? What did I really accomplish? The answer is simple.
I was there because of Claire. Claire is my two and a half year old daughter who I love very very much. I want the world to be a better place for her. I dream a world for Claire where she can marry anyone of any gender, not just someone approved by a small group of small minded people. I dream a world for Claire filled with tolerance and compassion for EVERYONE. Dream with me. Dream with me.
Yes, nothing against mrba personally but I disagree with that particular comment. In post #132 you posted what “correlation” specifically means, and it does not mean “good chance”.
I understand that you are trying to move on to a study that shows A causes B, but discussing causality prior to understanding the definition of “correlation” is a bit like putting the cart before the horse. You can say that mrba’s definition of “correlation” in post #114 is correct (i.e. that it means “good chance”), just note that it contradicts the definition that you supplied in post #132 (i.e. that it means ”a relation existing between phenomena or things or between mathematical or statistical variables which tend to vary, be associated, or occur together in a way not expected on the basis of chance alone”).
“There is a chance” of what “unless someone has information that proves other connections or disproves what we perceive to be connections between cause and effect relationships”?
I am "stealing" this from a political blog I go too. This pretty much sums it up for me... in the end, we are all simply HUMAN.
I look forward to the day......
...when we will be free to walk down the streets without being called "faggot" or "queer" or "dyke". When we can hold hands in public without fearing for our safety.
I look forward to the day when we can go to work and do our jobs without being called names. When we are not told we are “flaunting” our sexuality by putting up a picture of our husbands and wives or telling the truth about what we did on the weekend.
I look forward to the day when we will be free to attend school without teachers blaming us for AIDS, students taunting us for being "effeminate" and having to listen to principals excuse students for using "Gay" to mean "stupid".
I look forward to the day when we will be able to bring our husbands and wives into this country without having to tell the Immigration officials that they are just "friends". When we will be able to move from state to state without losing our rights. When we do not have to move to another country to find acceptance.
I look forward to the day when talking about “family values” includes our families. When Gay sons and Lesbian daughters are not thrown out of the house for who they love. When Transgendered men and women are allowed to live proudly without being mocked or abused on freakish talk shows.
I look forward to the day when politicians stop using our lives as a tool to incite hatred. When even the "supportive" politicians are no longer willing to abandon us for the sake of political expediency.
Finally, I look forward to the day when all Americans understand that we are their sons and daughters and aunts and uncles and cousins and mothers and fathers, and teachers and doctors and ministers and farmers, and immigrants… and we deserve equality.
Jana Lewis
ABOC , NCLE
A fine quotation is a diamond on the finger of a man of wit, and a pebble in the hand of a fool.
Joseph Roux
Wonderfully said, Jana. Thank you.
To quote the sermon that Jo posted "acceptance came in small doses over time" This line jumped out at me. In days of old, people would ingest small amounts of poison to build up an immunity, most of the time it would work, but there was those times that too much was taken. I hope for the sake of our G&L friends they can find peace. I just cant help but feel that we our posioning ourselves.:(
Spexvet, good topic!
Paul:cheers:
Thank you. Always my pleasure to entertain.:cheers:
Spexvet
Beautiful Jana, as a transsexual/lesbian/grandmother I would like to see my grandchildren grow up in a society like the one described.
After reading Jo's and Jana's posts, how can you not get it - these people are just that: people. And they should have the same rights and privelages that heterosexual people get. To do anything else would be discriminatory.
Spexvet
By this rationale, do you think that the freedom to worship religion in any way you want will eventually lead to the legalization of human sacrifice?
Last edited by Spexvet; 12-15-2004 at 06:16 PM. Reason: spelling
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