View Poll Results: Who's going to win.....

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  • Bush

    12 57.14%
  • Kerry

    9 42.86%
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Thread: Straw Poll

  1. #1
    Bad address email on file John R's Avatar
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    Confused Straw Poll

    Well what else do you expect in a american presidents brain....


    No replies needed just votes....

  2. #2
    Master OptiBoarder chm2023's Avatar
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    I believe Kerry will win based on:

    Heavy turnout which is being reported historically favors the Democrat.

    The last week has shown a momentum shift to Kerry in the polls--especially showing that Bush's lead in % of people seeing him as the better candidate re terror and handling Iraq eroding pretty substantially. (This has been Bush's strong area, as opposed to Kerry who has lead in domestic issues).

    The pre-election polls in 2000 put Bush ahead by 3-4 points. Polls now average a toss up. Elections like this one (with an incumbent) are referendums (referenda??) on the incumbent--Bush's approval rating is under 50%, supposed a very bad indicator for the incumbent.

  3. #3
    Pomposity! Spexvet's Avatar
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    I am not going to predict. Too close to call.
    ...Just ask me...

  4. #4
    sub specie aeternitatis Pete Hanlin's Avatar
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    As I've said pretty consistently, Kerry (or insert any other name here) will win. Look, a majority of people voted against the President last election. So, all things equal, the President loses this time around (assuming more than 572 Democrats in Florida were upset enough to go vote this time around and assuming that a couple 100 West Palm Beach residents figure out how to avoid voting for James Buchanan).

    Additionally, has the administration done things that would encourage people who voted against them last go round to vote for them this time- or have they done things that might cause former supporters to go the other way? Although I personally think going into Iraq was the right thing- and it was done well- I would guess there are some who will change their vote against the President because they disagree with our invasion of Iraq.

    So, in an environment that is pretty evenly split, I think the Dems gain enough votes this go round to get an extra 2-3% (plus, they've done a better job at reaping votes from those that usually don't bother to vote- e.g., students).

    Kerry will get about 292 electoral votes and will win the popular vote 50%-47%. Congrats to the Democrats among us.
    Pete Hanlin, ABOM
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  5. #5
    Master OptiBoarder chm2023's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete Hanlin
    As I've said pretty consistently, Kerry (or insert any other name here) will win. Look, a majority of people voted against the President last election. So, all things equal, the President loses this time around (assuming more than 572 Democrats in Florida were upset enough to go vote this time around and assuming that a couple 100 West Palm Beach residents figure out how to avoid voting for James Buchanan).

    Additionally, has the administration done things that would encourage people who voted against them last go round to vote for them this time- or have they done things that might cause former supporters to go the other way? Although I personally think going into Iraq was the right thing- and it was done well- I would guess there are some who will change their vote against the President because they disagree with our invasion of Iraq.

    So, in an environment that is pretty evenly split, I think the Dems gain enough votes this go round to get an extra 2-3% (plus, they've done a better job at reaping votes from those that usually don't bother to vote- e.g., students).

    Kerry will get about 292 electoral votes and will win the popular vote 50%-47%. Congrats to the Democrats among us.
    That's an interesting POV Pete. I think the administration made 2 big mistakes: a mistake by playing too hard to its base (Rove supposedly obsessed by the estimated 4 million evangelicals who didn't show up to vote); specifically anti-stem cell, anti-abortion, anti-gun control, anti-environment and anit-gay marriage are bad issues for the president with the moderate majority.

    I believe the president could have "voted" his conscience on these issues without going so far to the right--gay rights amendment is a good example. W and everyone else knows this doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of becoming an amendment. W also states he does not oppose states allowing civil unions, so what exactly is the point of this position? Simple, to pander to his base. The problem with this is it makes a lot of moderates uncomfortable.

    The 2nd big mistake was Iraq--not the war per se as the inability to admit the need for mid-course correction. What the admin sees and sells as steadfastness, more and more people are seeing as stubborness and (worse) an inability to learn. The president's approval numbers on Iraq are now approaching 40%. (A local wag I know sent me a cartoon he did; shows Bush with a bubble "I'd rather be right than president". Caption: "OK".)

    One of the most astonishing things I've seen, the Economist, yes the Economist endorsing Kerry. It is in my view particularly well reasoned. http://uspolitics.about.com/gi/dynam...y%5Fid=3329802
    Last edited by chm2023; 11-02-2004 at 03:10 PM.

  6. #6
    Bad address email on file John R's Avatar
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    Redhot Jumper

    Quote Originally Posted by John R



    NO REPLIES NEEDED JUST VOTES.....
    ;) :angry:

  7. #7
    Pomposity! Spexvet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by John R
    ;) :angry:
    Do you mean "please do not post a response"?:bbg: ;)
    ...Just ask me...

  8. #8
    sub specie aeternitatis Pete Hanlin's Avatar
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    Sorry John, but I'd suggest that asking Brits not to comment on their views of Labour and Conservatives would likely fall on deaf ears as well.

    ...so what exactly is the point of this position? Simple, to pander to his base. The problem with this is it makes a lot of moderates uncomfortable.
    Actually, there's another possibility- one that understandably may be overlooked... perhaps this is just what he personally believes in. If having a President that stands by what he believes makes moderates uncomfortable and drives opponents to the polls, then I'd have to agree with the cartoon- I'd rather he be right than be President. I suspect Sen. Kerry will be right there to say "okay" and happily move right into the White House.

    To be honest, I find it amusing that y'all find W to be so conservative. I think a pretty convincing case can be made that W is a lot closer to being "just right of center" than Sen. Kerry is to being "just left" of center. In the end, it doesn't really matter, however. The President went into Iraq (and most people agreed with him). Once committed, he's refused to compound the problem by going back on our committment to establish a free Iraq. Looks like we'll get to see just what Sen. Kerry's "great plan" is going to be. Hope it doesn't involve France and Germany- they've already made it clear they do not wish to be involved regardless of who is in the White House.
    Pete Hanlin, ABOM
    Vice President Professional Services
    Essilor of America

    http://linkedin.com/in/pete-hanlin-72a3a74

  9. #9
    Pomposity! Spexvet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete Hanlin
    Actually, there's another possibility- one that understandably may be overlooked... perhaps this is just what he personally believes in. If having a President that stands by what he believes makes moderates uncomfortable and drives opponents to the polls, then I'd have to agree with the cartoon- I'd rather he be right than be President.
    Actually, Pete, in a republic, we elect our representative to do what WE want, not what they want. Through polling, we know how Americans view most issues. As the "executive" of the country - the one who "executes" our will - he should enact policies that the majority want enacted. Instead, he is governing to his personal views. That is why I want him out. His views and my views are almost mutually exclusive. And I don't want to have to live by the rules he makes to comform to his views. He is out of the mainstream.

    Spexvet
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  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spexvet
    Actually, Pete, in a republic, we elect our representative to do what WE want, not what they want. Through polling, we know how Americans view most issues. As the "executive" of the country - the one who "executes" our will - he should enact policies that the majority want enacted. Instead, he is governing to his personal views. That is why I want him out. His views and my views are almost mutually exclusive. And I don't want to have to live by the rules he makes to comform to his views. He is out of the mainstream.
    We elect people not ideals, courses of action, vague plans or anything else. I do not believe that our elected officials should govern to the polls, they should govern to their beliefs, their understanding of the facts, and their ideals. The last thing we need is to have our politicians governing to the highly fickle will of public opinion. We need stability, thoughtfullness and sanity. I would like to believe that that is how we, as a nation of individuals, cast our ballots, anthing else is madness.

  11. #11
    sub specie aeternitatis Pete Hanlin's Avatar
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    Actually, Pete, in a republic, we elect our representative to do what WE want, not what they want.
    Actually, Spexvet, you're describing a populist Democracy. In a Representative Republic, we send people to office based on how we feel they will represent our nation (or locality). Of course, you assume the person will tend to vote this way or that on particular issues, but you are basically electing a representative- not an ideological puppet beholden to your every whim on every issue (i.e., your representative is not obliged to always vote as the majority of his/her constituency would vote). This is also one of the reasons we do not directly elect the President (we elect people to represent us in electing the President).

    These trivial points aside, you've noted you do not feel President Bush represents your interests. I'm relatively certain you are in the majority this go round.

    Well, I'm headed home- this will probably be the last post I make on the subject of this election (I'll listen to a few last political ads on the way home and hope that ESPN doesn't offer political coverage tonight). I know I take this election stuff too seriously- character flaw on my part (and a failure to live up to my own motto).

    Good tidings to whomever our President will be- may his term be less tragic and more concillitory than this one has proven to be!
    Pete Hanlin, ABOM
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    http://linkedin.com/in/pete-hanlin-72a3a74

  12. #12
    Pomposity! Spexvet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete Hanlin
    Actually, Pete, in a republic, we elect our representative to do what WE want, not what they want.
    Actually, Spexvet, you're describing a populist Democracy. In a Representative Republic, we send people to office based on how we feel they will represent our nation (or locality). Of course, you assume the person will tend to vote this way or that on particular issues, but you are basically electing a representative- not an ideological puppet beholden to your every whim on every issue (i.e., your representative is not obliged to always vote as the majority of his/her constituency would vote). This is also one of the reasons we do not directly elect the President (we elect people to represent us in electing the President).
    ...
    Call it what you want. If the person you voted into office does not vote the way you want him to, you'll vote for someone else next time.
    ...Just ask me...

  13. #13
    Master OptiBoarder Joann Raytar's Avatar
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    I agree with Coda and Pete. With the way the media and popular culture cause the masses to think in terms of docudrama, would you want a government that acted based entirely on the viewpoint of the day? Sometimes the masses are wrong.

  14. #14
    That Boy Ain't Right Blake's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete Hanlin
    As I've said pretty consistently, Kerry (or insert any other name here) will win. Look, a majority of people voted against the President last election. So, all things equal, the President loses this time around (assuming more than 572 Democrats in Florida were upset enough to go vote this time around and assuming that a couple 100 West Palm Beach residents figure out how to avoid voting for James Buchanan).

    Those West Palm Beach residents probably voted for James Buchanan the first time (in 1856), so it's easy to see how they could accidentally vote for Pat Buchanan. Fortunately for them, there are no Buchanans running this time!

    (Sorry Pete - I just couldn't resist!)

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