... that you are a werewolf?
OK, you're not a werewolf. And I'm generally not one for brain-teasers. But I just stumbled on a second one that I find "compelling". The givens:
It is known a priori that one percent of the population are werewolves.
There is a new AMA-approved werewolf test with a "99 percent" reliability, which means (statistically) that 99 percent of the werewolf population can be expected to test positive for Werewolf Syndrome, and 99 percent of the unaffected population can be expected to test negative.
You just tested positive.
What are the odds that you are a werewolf?
Instead of posting, why not just send me a PM - or an email? I will respond with a link to an explanation that you can read online, and that way, you won't be "letting the cat out of the bag" for anyone else who wants to think about this. I will post only a statistical breakdown of the responses - no user names.
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