Originally Posted by
WFruit
Ok.....
As for the Independent lens vendors....well, here's my personal predictions (based on what I currently see and here from people in the industry):
Younger - Probably won't last more than another 5~10 years. They don't make anything that anyone else doesn't make, nor do they have a Free Form offering yet. They're working on it, but I think they will be too late to the party. The Image, while good, is out dated and won't last too much longer. The only other thing they have is NuPolar, and Essilor is putting their entire marking weight behind their Xperio product.... And we all know what their marketing department did with Varilux. Younger might survive, but I don't think that they will still have enough market share to remain a viable company..... I hope I'm wrong, because I like their lenses, and their Customer Service is outstanding.
Vision Ease - There are still presistant rumors that Transitions is going to aquire Vision Ease (I keep hearing this from people at Essilor.....). If so, along with Essilor's aquisition of Signet Armorlite, this elminates two more non-Transitions photochromic brands (Instashades and LifeRx), leaving only Polycore and Augen as Sunsensors vendors, neither of which is really large enough to do much.
Hoya - Should be ok for the long term, given the strong success of their various ID lenses. However, I've heard rumblings from within Hoya that their revenue is not what they need it to be.
AO/Sola/Zeiss - I think their decision to pull the CZV lenses out of non-Zeiss/non-Independant labs may hurt them in the short term, but the quality of their Free Form product will pull them through. While they are doing ok, I wonder about their long term survivability.
Seiko/Pentax - Seiko's global presence, and their success with their Free Form lenses should insure their survivability. They remain a smaller, niche company. On one hand their specialization has made them the best in their niche, and less of a threat to the "big" vendors. On the other hand, aquisition of such a specialized company would greatly improve a companies presence with that niche products.
X-Cel - Other than the fact that they make a lot of lenses that no one else does, and their customer service is awesome, I don't know how they stay in business. Due to all of their products being made in the USA, their prices tend to run VERY high.
Essilor - Well, they're just big, you know..... However, aquiring Shamir makes extremely good sense for them. They would aquire one of the best lens R&D companies in the world, something that they sorely lack. Also, their Free Form offering, the Ideal, is not fairing very well against the other Free Form lenses. With Free Form progressives being the future of progressive designs, their "enhanced" lenses are only going to last so long.
Please remember, all of these are only my own opinions, and are based on a US view, not necessarily a global one.
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