How low can it go?

**Johns** · 11-19-2008, 01:45 PM

So far today, the DOW is down +/- 200 points.

How far down do you think the market will go before it levels out, or goes up?

I'm guessing it will go as low as 5900.

The critera I'd use is 10 straight business days for the DOW to be in the black.

What's you're guess?

**Uncle Fester** · 11-19-2008, 02:45 PM

Bottom looks like 8200. It's been hit several times now and seems to go up from there. Sometimes rising dramatically as all the money that's been pulled tries to reenter at the bottom is my guess.

**hcjilson** · 11-19-2008, 03:07 PM

In 1964 or 5 I authored a paper in graduate school entitled (get ready for this...)

Will the Dow ever break 1000?

Hopefully that paper has now turned to dust somewhere, but it shows how little we understood about what impact computers would have and the amount of information and the speed at which it would be transmitted. I wish I could take the paper back for a rewrite!:D

**Johns** · 11-19-2008, 06:00 PM

Originally Posted by Uncle Fester

Bottom looks like 8200. It's been hit several times now and seems to go up from there.

Not anymore!

It just finished below that number?

Anymore guesses?

**Jacqui** · 11-19-2008, 06:05 PM

Originally Posted by hcjilson

In 1964 or 5 I authored a paper in graduate school entitled (get ready for this...)

Will the Dow ever break 1000?

Hopefully that paper has now turned to dust somewhere, but it shows how little we understood about what impact computers would have and the amount of information and the speed at which it would be transmitted. I wish I could take the paper back for a rewrite!:D

I was working for AO in Sioux City Iowa when the Dow closed over 1000 for the first time. The boys upstairs at the stock brokers office had a party and invited everyone in the building. The problem was, that Warner Lambert (owned AO at that time) went down, I was losing money !!

**Jacqui** · 11-19-2008, 06:06 PM

Originally Posted by johns

not anymore!

It just finished below that number?

Anymore guesses?

5000 ??

**For-Life** · 11-19-2008, 06:23 PM

call me optimistic, but I cannot see it going much lower. I think we have hit its worse and will begin to level off and go up.

Plus, lets hope that the next month of Xmas shopping will stabilize it. Though, if we have one more hit, it may come the day after Black Friday, if retail sales are really low.

**Grubendol** · 11-19-2008, 06:56 PM

Originally Posted by For-Life

call me optimistic, but I cannot see it going much lower. I think we have hit its worse and will begin to level off and go up.

Plus, lets hope that the next month of Xmas shopping will stabilize it. Though, if we have one more hit, it may come the day after Black Friday, if retail sales are really low.

You're optimistic :p

The bottom will be June or July. The upside, is that the market has been insanely overinflated for at least 10 years. It will finally get back to an honest level.

**Billy Brock** · 11-19-2008, 09:37 PM

hello all,

here are some interesting levels and dates on monthly DJ chart....Oct '08 declined almost 3,000 points

bottom might set when price posts a level of demand that is greater than supply

BB

**fjpod** · 11-19-2008, 09:48 PM

I suspect things can go a lot lower than they are now (although deep down I am an optimist). Almost everybody I know still has multiple cars, cell phones, cable TV, a summer home here and there, designer clothing, and goes out to eat at least twice per week, and complain about paying taxes. (No...all my friends are not ODs.).

I saw a bumper sticker the other day that went something like this..."Despite the high cost of living, it is still quite popular."

**CME4SPECS** · 11-20-2008, 12:11 AM

6327

**Bill West** · 11-20-2008, 08:11 AM

Zero

**Billy Brock** · 11-20-2008, 08:15 AM

nice CME4,

if price gets through 7,150 and sustains, a level of demand was around your number

BB

**Bill West** · 11-20-2008, 08:29 AM

Originally Posted by fjpod

I suspect things can go a lot lower than they are now (although deep down I am an optimist). Almost everybody I know still has multiple cars, cell phones, cable TV, a summer home here and there, designer clothing, and goes out to eat at least twice per week, and complain about paying taxes. (No...all my friends are not ODs.).

I saw a bumper sticker the other day that went something like this..."Despite the high cost of living, it is still quite popular."

Change is taking place now. Most people in this country are too dull to realize what is really going on. We are being and have been raped by the powers at be for way too long.

Let the tea party begin.:angry::angry::angry::angry:

**Grubendol** · 11-20-2008, 12:57 PM

Free-Trade has put us in this mess. Our Auto-Makers can’t compete with Korea for the cost of manufacturing a car because they are paying wages and living at a standard of living much lower than ours. If we had the tariffs that this country was founded with…to protect American workers and manufacturing…then we wouldn’t be in this mess.

**Johns** · 11-20-2008, 01:04 PM

Originally Posted by Grubendol

Free-Trade has put us in this mess. Our Auto-Makers can’t compete with Korea for the cost of manufacturing a car because they are paying wages and living at a standard of living much lower than ours. If we had the tariffs that this country was founded with…to protect American workers and manufacturing…then we wouldn’t be in this mess.

Maybe...but the fact that they make Honda cars in Ohio, and they are on the best sellers list, should also be considered. (but that's already in another thread)

My guess is 5946.

**Grubendol** · 11-20-2008, 01:24 PM

But, you see they can make Hondas in Ohio because we have become that third world nation. We’ve depressed our wages to such an extent that it can make sense. Also, not all tariffs have been lifted and one of the reasons for building foreign cars here is to have them avoid the minimal tariffs we have….which is fine by me personally. If you manufacture here, than you can feel free to avoid tariffs. The point of tariffs is to get the jobs here.

Then, with other companies like BMW and Volkswagen it is cheaper to make the cars here since the dollar is so devalued against the Euro. (we are the third world nation now)

**Uncle Fester** · 11-20-2008, 01:53 PM

Originally Posted by Johns

Not anymore!

It just finished below that number?

Anymore guesses?

7346!:idea::)

**Johns** · 11-20-2008, 02:03 PM

Originally Posted by Grubendol

But, you see they can make Hondas in Ohio because we have become that third world nation.

Well there you go! Problem solved. Lordstown (laying off 1,000 employees next month) is located in Ohio.

Should be no problem.;)

**hyperoptic** · 11-20-2008, 02:07 PM

Heres my guess, we will get to around 7000 where it will stay (+or-300) for atleast 6 months then it will slowly start its climb back to about 9500. Im pulling this out of my............ so if Im right Ill be suprised.

**DocInChina** · 11-20-2008, 02:09 PM

Originally Posted by Grubendol

Free-Trade has put us in this mess. Our Auto-Makers can’t compete with Korea for the cost of manufacturing a car because they are paying wages and living at a standard of living much lower than ours. If we had the tariffs that this country was founded with…to protect American workers and manufacturing…then we wouldn’t be in this mess.

The standard of living that we enjoy in the US is because of free trade. Inexpensive consumer products.

On one hand you say that our automakers cannot compete with Korean automakers because their wages and standard of living are much lower than ours and you also say "we’ve depressed our wages to such an extent that it can make sense" for foreign auto makers to manufacture in the US. Are US autoworkers in foreign owned companies underpaid? Free Trade requires a company to run a solid operation. "Protecting" domestic businesses that are operated poorly seems to be a poor fiscal model.

**Grubendol** · 11-20-2008, 02:29 PM

The problem is that we went from what this country was founded on (namely the economy working for the people) to the Reaganomics Trickle Down model which is that the people work for the economy. This is bass ackwards.

Free-Trade does not make a company more fiscally responsible. Free-Trade makes a company more fiscally responsible to the shareholders and not the workers and purchasers of their product. Free-Trade has allowed us to have cheap products in the US, yes. But at what cost? It’s a great short-term economic policy, but a terrible long-term policy. That is why the stock market goes up when companies lay people off. It’s great for the company’s bottom line. It looks great for the books, but at what cost?

I’m so fed up and angry over this mess because it’s free-traders “World is Flat” Friedmanders who are causing this mess, and then blaming the poor people who are the victims of their greed.

**Johns** · 11-20-2008, 02:30 PM

So what do you think?

How low will it go?

Free FezzJohns frame to the winner!

:cheers::cheers::cheers::cheers:

**fjpod** · 11-20-2008, 03:28 PM

All those foreign cars that folks claim are made in America...Virtually all the parts are imported. Only final assembly is done here. The foreign automakers avoid tarrifs that way, and save on shipping costs. They were able to set up new, super efficient assembly plants that require a minimum of American workers. They have no responsibility to retired workers. It's no wonder they can beat the big three.

**For-Life** · 11-20-2008, 05:27 PM

Originally Posted by Grubendol

The problem is that we went from what this country was founded on (namely the economy working for the people) to the Reaganomics Trickle Down model which is that the people work for the economy. This is bass ackwards.

Free-Trade does not make a company more fiscally responsible. Free-Trade makes a company more fiscally responsible to the shareholders and not the workers and purchasers of their product. Free-Trade has allowed us to have cheap products in the US, yes. But at what cost? It’s a great short-term economic policy, but a terrible long-term policy. That is why the stock market goes up when companies lay people off. It’s great for the company’s bottom line. It looks great for the books, but at what cost?

I’m so fed up and angry over this mess because it’s free-traders “World is Flat” Friedmanders who are causing this mess, and then blaming the poor people who are the victims of their greed.

Not even to the shareholders. If you are not accountable to your stakeholders, you are not accountable to your shareholders. Turning out a profit today does not mean you will turn out one tomorrow. If you do crummy things, you will not have long term profits.