Ontario at risk of mild recession, TD report says
KAREN HOWLETT
From Friday's Globe and Mail
March 21, 2008 at 5:53 AM EDT
TORONTO — Ontario's weakening economic fortunes are leading to new calls to reform federal transfer programs used to divvy up riches among the provinces.
Canada's most populous province will rank at the bottom of the heap this year, with its economy growing just 0.5 per cent, says Toronto-Dominion Bank in a particularly gloomy report that for the first time raises the spectre of Ontario slipping into a mild recession.
Central Canada's anemic growth comes as some western provinces are faring much better. The growing regional divide has economists questioning the wisdom of transfer programs that require Ontario to contribute a disproportionate share of its wealth to prop up other provinces.
"We cannot continue to fund other parts of Canada to a level beyond the quality of services we have in Ontario," Len Crispino, president of the Ontario Chamber of Commerce, said yesterday in an interview. "We need to rebalance this imbalance."
The TD report says the "lethal combination" of a high Canadian dollar and weak demand in the United States for goods manufactured in Ontario is hurting the province's ability to raise revenue. Ontario at one time enjoyed one of the highest standards of living in Canada. But that is no longer the case. Just four years ago, the average income of each Ontarian was $400 above the national average. By last year, income had fallen to just $84 above the national average and it threatens to keep falling................................
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