Originally Posted by
Pete Hanlin
For my predictions, I'll go forward 14 years to 2020 (an interesting year- optically speaking)... I've laced the predictions with a few factual notes from 2006 (in blue). Note, while these predictions are naturally based on my best guesses- they do not necessarily reflect the plans or views of my employer, Essilor of America.
Eye Care
1.) Once retail began accepting managed care plans in 2010, the migration from the private practice to the retailer began to find new life. Eventually peaking at 68% in 2013. The effects were felt most acutely by ODs nearing retirement. Optometry published an article last year detailing the failure of succession for private practices (that is, more ODs are retiring without selling their practice- due to over-valuation of the practice and lack of correlation between the salary expectations of recent graduates from schools of Optometry and the doctors who hire them).
2.) About that time, however, more ODs began joining co-ops in which they sold their practices into a group in which they received shares of ownership. There are groups like this already in existence- the one I'm most familiar with is in the Carolinas and is a shining example of private practice innovation. By leveraging their size (and ability to offer their own local coverage), private practices cut retail back to 57% of the market.
3.) Refractions are still handled primarily by ODs, owing primarily to the oversaturation of ODs in the market. Due to graduation rates from the various schools of Optometry, there is currently a growing surplus of Optometrists in the US.
:)
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