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Thread: Where do you see the industry heading in the future?

  1. #1
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    Where do you see the industry heading in the future?

    Just random predictions, theories, and ideas of what will happen to our industry. Could be 5, 10, 20 years.


    Chain Stores
    - Luxottica and other suppliers will continue to go in the way of buying retail stores. Eventually one of the major suppliers will go under and the supplier/chain store idea will become unpopular. The other stores will get rid of their chain entities, and Luxottica will get rid of Cole and keep Lenscrafters as its main retail store.

    - Chain stores will have all of the brand names and will be divided into two areas: the brand name stores and the discount stores.

    - There will be further expansion in market size by the chain stores, but they will not encompass the whole market (probably around 75 percent).

    Refraction:
    - Move more towards the dentist model of having someone who is not an OD or a MD pretty much do the whole refraction. The OD and the MD will then come in to make sure that the patient is seeing 20/20 (or best capable) with the prescribed RX and to check the health of the eye.

    Independents
    - Will need to have a presciber in the location to survive.

    - Will be more of a speciality, quality store that will not offer the brand names, but will offer unique product (ie will offer stuff like Humphrey and Alan Mikili, but not Georgio Armani).

    - Will be the specialist for certain lenses, contacts and frames.


    2030
    - Chris Ryser and Chip Anderson will finally retire ;)

    Well that is just a few random thoughts. What about your predictions?

  2. #2
    Underemployed Genius Jacqui's Avatar
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    I think that in a few years one of the biggies will go too far and get hit with an anti-monopoly lawsuit and be forced to downsize, kinda like AO & B&L.

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    Redhot Jumper Serious predictions....................

    Quote Originally Posted by For-Life View Post
    2030
    - Chris Ryser and Chip Anderson will finally retire ;)
    The two of us might retire by then, but that does not mean we will have to shut-up and the Optiboard might have another first ==== two geriactric active participants.

    Here is my answer:

    Chain Stores
    - Luxottica and other suppliers will stop to go in the way of buying retail stores. All this because they already own all of them.

    They will start buying up all online opticals as they have become theire real competition.

    Refraction:
    There will be NO more refractionist's. The computerized Essilor/Zeiss venture will do it all in a 90 seconds test. Only the presence of the patient is needed.

    Independents
    Will be a profession that got moved into the history books.

    Specialists for certain lenses, contacts and frames will be no further required.

    The optical store will be incorporated in a Tim Horton (owned by Essilor or Zeiss after the merger.....now called ZEISSESSI......... or any equivalent fast food restaurant were customers can have coffe and choose their frames.......then sit in a booth (size of a confession booth) equipped with picture and measuring eqiupment which electronically measures everything needed and transfers the data to the lab.

    A invoice will be printed at the end.....coming out a slot and will have to be paid at the cash before exiting. 2 weeks later customer comes back gets envelope with job at delivery booth ...........goes into fitting booth and the computerized magic fingers that will automatically adjust the frame. In the envelope patient also gets a website address were he can get all information on how to take care of the new glasses including an e-mail address for special questions.


    2030
    - Chris Ryser and Chip Anderson will finally retire :D

    This might even be guaranteed. :D

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    Nah Chris, the knowledge you and Chip provide is extremely important to everyone on this forum.

    - Online opticals will never be a threat. Like I said, there are things that will take off online and there are things that will not. Since products have been available online computers, electronics, dvd's and such have done very well online. But clothing has not. People like to see, touch, try on the product.

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    Hate to say this but:

    90% of the business will go away, with the market having disappeared behind the surgeon's door. There are already places that will to lasic for $300.00. As less failures occurre and the equipment becomes less expensive and more fool proof it won't take the public too long to become less fearful and figure out this is cheaper than a pair of spectacles.

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    how long?

    how long will that take?


    Quote Originally Posted by chip anderson View Post
    90% of the business will go away, with the market having disappeared behind the surgeon's door. There are already places that will to lasic for $300.00. As less failures occurre and the equipment becomes less expensive and more fool proof it won't take the public too long to become less fearful and figure out this is cheaper than a pair of spectacles.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chip anderson View Post
    90% of the business will go away, with the market having disappeared behind the surgeon's door. There are already places that will to lasic for $300.00. As less failures occurre and the equipment becomes less expensive and more fool proof it won't take the public too long to become less fearful and figure out this is cheaper than a pair of spectacles.

    I have seen a lot of places that advertise $500 and got sued because eveyone was upcharged to $1500 to $2500. I think as the money goes away from lasik (ie less profit) only certain surgeons will want to partake, and the quality will be sketchy at certain locations. I think this will hurt the overall lasik industry. I don't know how much the $300 lasik places hurt the $3000 ones. Most, or at least some people recognize quality surgery, just like quality frames and lenses.


    As an optometrist, I rarely recommend it, but I guess I should be happy I'll be getting all those post-lasik dry eye patients in their 30s and 40s instead of in their 60s...

    Generally speaking, from what I've seen, lasik patients are a mess to deal with. I realize I'm only seeing the ones that got messed up a bit, but its amazing to me that they usually tend to be very happy with the results.

    Anyway, I guess my point is that I'd be very surprised if most people go with a surgical solution, even if the results are great and the cost is low. Could be wrong...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris Ryser View Post
    The two of us might retire by then, but that does not mean we will have to shut-up and the Optiboard might have another first ==== two geriactric active participants.

    Here is my answer:

    Chain Stores
    - Luxottica and other suppliers will stop to go in the way of buying retail stores. All this because they already own all of them.

    They will start buying up all online opticals as they have become theire real competition.
    .............

    A invoice will be printed at the end.....coming out a slot and will have to be paid at the cash before exiting. 2 weeks later customer comes back gets envelope with job at delivery booth ...........goes into fitting booth and the computerized magic fingers that will automatically adjust the frame. In the envelope patient also gets a website address were he can get all information on how to take care of the new glasses including an e-mail address for special questions.
    This is great prediction......just want to add two more:

    1. The big guys don't need to buy the online players who has very limited added value. Lux can just put up their own online shop and replace in a second......

    2. Before the Rx frame arrives the delivery booth to be picked up, it was made somewhere in an Essilor lab in India or Africa.....China is already too expensive.

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    Quote Originally Posted by markssunwear View Post
    how long will that take?
    It's already happening here in Hong Kong. Lasik runs USD800 - 2000 per eye here and people are considering them as a money saver, if you spread it out in a few years, comparing contact lens expenditures........this is how the doctors selling them here. Oh, the biggest competitor of HK Lasik doctors....guess who......US MD's! The difference also buys you a short US holiday........

  10. #10
    Ophthalmic Optician
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    I have an office in an area where money is absolutely no object. We sell a ton of glasses to people who spend more on shoes than lasiks would cost them.

    It's not always about the money...some folks just don't want it.

    Most opticians, if they play their cards right, can get free lasik surgery. How many of you have ? I've had it offered to me and my wife several times, but we've never done it. And that's for free!

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    Unfortunately, I am not so sanguine about the industry. Refinements in Lasik procedures will make it cheaper and more easily administered while eliminating undesirable side effects like dry eyes and sensitivity to glare. Opthalmic frames will become more fashion accessory than anything else. Perhaps as an attempt to preserve their existence, frame makers resort to converging technology combining it with PDA functions, phones, an an entertainment package with movies, music etc.

    Instead of dispensing glasses, stores will start to concentrate on services addressing issues of minor eye problems and especially eye protection gadgets. Staff employed will have to possess higher qualifications and credentials than the current levels.

    Advances in material engineering will make frames light and virtually indestructable. CR39 will eventually be phased out. In many optical offices, sunglasses will become more and more in demand with global warming and thinning of ozone layers. As an improvement to transitions lenses, a computer chip embedded into the sunglasses based on nanotechnology allows a single pair of lens to adapt to the users activities such that polarization can be turned on and off, base tints can change from amber to grey to green etc automatically. They can also predict the weather, show wind direction and one's location and as an add on option, guide drivers on the correct driving routes, even the path that should be taken on the putting greens.

    Further into these, gene therapy and prescription tablets can reverse the effects of myopia and presbyopia so that future offsprings do not need any more visual aids ever.

    In developing/ third world countries, changes will be less rapid. Yet, efforts will be made to make glasses freely available or at very low cost to those who need it.

  12. #12
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    [quote=striker22;152079] They can also predict the weather, show wind direction and one's location and as an add on option, guide drivers on the correct driving routes, even the path that should be taken on the putting greens. quote]

    I think that by the time our eyeglasses can predict the weather, most of the golf courses will have been converted to used spacehip showrooms.

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    haha. just letting my imagination run wild. I'll never live to see that day.

  14. #14
    What's up? drk's Avatar
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    1.) Refractive surgery is really the same as a cosmetic surgical procedure. As liposuction and breast augmentation has increased, so will refractive surgery. This is an expensive out-of-pocket procedure that is controlled by surgeons, who will not forever *******ize themselves. It has limited market potential, very limited.

    2.) Frame retailing is going to go the way of regular retailing: it will be gobbled by national chains/retailers and will remain a fashion accessory for most.

    3.) Ophthalmic lenses are ripe for commoditization, meaning that they will be so advanced as to be simple. This is unfortunate, because frame retailing will need this concurrent technology improvement to allow the mass merchandization of eye wear. State licensure has to be the governor on this unhealthy practice.

    4.) Opticians will not "refract" in the next twenty to thirty years, for lack of need.

    5.) Optometrists will subdivide into vision and medical, if optometry can continue to sit at the medical reimbursement table. If not, optometry will generally shrink into vision-only mode, and we'll have a tough time preventing the "pharmacy"-itization of the profession, where commercialism will run very rampant.

    6.) There will always be those who wish to be entrepreneurs, and a few will succeed, but it will take increasing skill and capital. It will be not unlike the restaurant market.

    7.) Ophthalmology will still be in the catbird seat, but will be looking for more and more non-covered surgical procedures to augment their decreasing third party reimbursement, and that means optical and contact lenses and routine examination, even if they do not do it themselves, but employ technicians/optometrists. Ironic.

    8.) There will always be the need for specialty and custom care: those who really, really know optics and can act as referred-to consultants to the chains and medical optometric practices that can only do the simple stuff.

    9.) Independent labs will probably decrease greatly, as lens fabrication is automated, but only to a certain limit, due to the increasing need for technical support and business partnership with private opticals and private practices. Some may move into synergistic vertical arrangements with these practices.

  15. #15
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    The future

    The future is here and moving forward at a rapid pace.

    It is called consolidation, merger and acquisition.

    In our industry as has happened in others, there will always be room for smart aggressive independent operators. But our optical industry is changing very rapidly and yet a very large number do not have an email address. It is like operating a business without a phone. There was a time when that was just fine. But, that is long over.

    We are an optical chemical manufacturing company and understand that we must acquire others or be acquired. It is simply grow or go. It is just the reality of the marketplace.

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    Quote Originally Posted by LKahn View Post
    The future is here and moving forward at a rapid pace.

    It is called consolidation, merger and acquisition.

    In our industry as has happened in others, there will always be room for smart aggressive independent operators. But our optical industry is changing very rapidly and yet a very large number do not have an email address. It is like operating a business without a phone. There was a time when that was just fine. But, that is long over.

    We are an optical chemical manufacturing company and understand that we must acquire others or be acquired. It is simply grow or go. It is just the reality of the marketplace.
    Companies have always had a trend of consolidation and then liquidation. Look at Diagio, the company once owned General Mills, Pearle Vision, and Burger King. Now all it sells is high end liquor. The companies will buy everyone up then sell everyone off.

  17. #17
    Rising Star loncoa's Avatar
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    As far as Opticians refracting: it's already occurring in many areas (obviously not in yours).

    As far as them developing the skill and the art of it to a decent level: it's bound to happen eventually.

    As far as Corporate Optometry and Opticianry completely taking over: not gonna happen. There will always be a position in the market for the human touch.

    As far as Independents go: if they are skilled artists, they will always survive.

    All of these things are already coming to pass where I live. And yet, the folks who are excellent at what they do still do well. One fact about Corporate is, they will always cut corners to save money, whether in product, procedure, or people.

    I confidently predict that there will always be a certain class of people who will not accept that.

    Amen.

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    Bad address email on file Karlen McLean's Avatar
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    Freeform

    Freeform/digital surfacing is predicted by many experts to be the only way ophthalmic lenses will be produced within 5 years. If true, think how that will change the consumer outlook on lenses and the optical industry, from manufacturers to labs to eyecare professionals to business management.

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    Master OptiBoarder optigrrl's Avatar
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    My vision of the future...

    I see optigrrl with 15 - 20 stores, servicing the middle-to-high end consumer. All locations will be staffed with the best of the best in talent and will offer bang-on service.

    All products offered will be premium, no cutting corners. Only 1st-tier products served here, folks!

    The opticians will have no restrictions on products - they can order what they need to order. (because they are the best they know their stuff)

    I will offer the best package to attract the best opticians - best wages, best bene's, best working environment (no mall hours) and even a pension plan that nobody can touch: you give me 20 years, I give you salary for life! (non transferrable).

    Corporate responsibility, you know...My goal isn't to get rich off of my employees, it is to get rich WITH my employees!

    And guess what - people will flock. Because they KNOW they won't get better service, better products or better quality anywhere else, and they will tell EVERYONE they meet how great they were treated!

    (word of mouth goes a looooong way!)

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    Last edited by INAwink; 07-24-2008 at 08:30 PM.

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    A few more thoughts.

    First, as for Lasik: There will always be a certain percentage of people who do not want this option. Further, there are a lot of people who just are not suited for the procedure. I wanted to get Lasic but found out my cornea is too thin. Lasik and what ever follows it, will pull a percentage of the population out of glasses, that is just a fact. However, there will always be a need for glasses for some.

    The future of the industry, well I agree with most of the comments made here, and I think anyone can see that just as Opticians numbers continue to drop across the country so will Optometrists. Just as managed care has cut the financial life blood from Opticianary, the same is and will continue to happen in Optometry. Most OD's will wind up at a Chain or working for an MD. There was a time not long ago, that an OD made all his money with out the need for an optical at all. Some OD's use to discuss the pro's and con's of having an optical. Not too many years back it was clear to all OD's that in order to make up what they were loosing from the insurance companies, they were going to have to have an optical. Look at what has happend to the MD's, they are now saying the same things that the OD's were saying just 15 years ago. Just as the Optician's lacked the financial power as a group to lobby for their industry against changes that the Chains and OD's wanted, the OD's lack the financial power to fight the MD's lobby. But admittedly the OD's Lobby is a force to be reckoned with so they will fair much better in relation to the Opticians Lobbyist. So the power in a lot of ways is with whom can afford the lobbyist to enact change for their industry. For the most part this is the way it is due to the publics lack of concern in these matters. If the public gets too unhappy they do hold the trump card.



    Optician's are a shrinking number, due in part to the effort it takes to become one in relation to the amount of money one can make. There are a lot of other things one can do with just two years of study that will pay a lot more down the road. Most opticians are capped on what they can make in a matter of just a few years or work. That is one of the reasons that good Opticians with a lot of ambition move on to other jobs such as reps for different companies in the optical industry. I suppose as the MD's and OD's find it harder and harder to find Optians to run their opticals that pay will increase to higher than current levels. I think that even with that being the case I don't see the Optician schools getting filled with students. I hope I am wrong on that but I don't think so.

    Maybe one day we will all just go down to our local insurance provider's office to get all our medical needs taken care of. Being given what they will let us have. Scary huh.

    There will always be a small percentage of health care providers that will cater to those that have the money to not need to use insurance. That niche will be very profitable for those who have the skill to provide a high level of service.
    Last edited by beertv; 08-09-2006 at 10:37 AM.

  22. #22
    sub specie aeternitatis Pete Hanlin's Avatar
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    For my predictions, I'll go forward 14 years to 2020 (an interesting year- optically speaking)... I've laced the predictions with a few factual notes from 2006 (in blue). Note, while these predictions are naturally based on my best guesses- they do not necessarily reflect the plans or views of my employer, Essilor of America.

    Eye Care
    1.) Once retail began accepting managed care plans in 2010, the migration from the private practice to the retailer began to find new life. Eventually peaking at 68% in 2013. The effects were felt most acutely by ODs nearing retirement. Optometry published an article last year detailing the failure of succession for private practices (that is, more ODs are retiring without selling their practice- due to over-valuation of the practice and lack of correlation between the salary expectations of recent graduates from schools of Optometry and the doctors who hire them).
    2.) About that time, however, more ODs began joining co-ops in which they sold their practices into a group in which they received shares of ownership. There are groups like this already in existence- the one I'm most familiar with is in the Carolinas and is a shining example of private practice innovation. By leveraging their size (and ability to offer their own local coverage), private practices cut retail back to 57% of the market.
    3.) Refractions are still handled primarily by ODs, owing primarily to the oversaturation of ODs in the market. Due to graduation rates from the various schools of Optometry, there is currently a growing surplus of Optometrists in the US.
    4.) Opticianry has lost licensure in one or two states- and have gained licensure in none... the continued lack of a nationwide educational standard continues to constrain the profession.

    Ophthalmic Devices
    1.) PALs have divided into two segments,
    Commodity market= 80% with prices approximately equal to FT28s
    Technology market= 20% with personalized designs that are either specific to a patient-driven or frame fit measurement
    2.) SV remains roughly 50% of the lens market
    FTs are now 5%
    PALs 45%.
    3.) Direct-to-surface (aka "freeform") processes are used to create roughly 50% of all PALs. Traditional surfacing is still used for 80% of SV and FT products.
    4.) AR is delivered on roughly 70% of all lenses ordered in the US.
    5.) CR-39 has dropped to 10% of the market.
    Polycarbonate is the predominant lens material (60%)
    Trivex is widely available but a small % of the market (5%)
    High Index continues to struggle around (20%) due to the availability of refractive procedures for the natural consumer base of this product.
    6.) The most popular refractive process now involves the insertion of an adjustable focus IOL into the eyes of both post- and pre- cataract patients. The Crystalens is already being implanted into pre-cataract patients- currently with varied results.
    7.) Disposable contact lens use has continued to climb- particularly among aging Baby Boomers who have worn them for decades (perhaps an upswing in corneal problems due to the long term use/abuse of lenses).

    Delivery Method
    1.) 33% of eyewear is now ordered directly by consumers over the internet- mostly related to managed care (product is picked up at both retail and private practices- mostly retail).
    2.) Internet ordering by ECPs to Labs is the standard- further allowing the consolidation of smaller labs into larger labs & networks. Faster more efficient delivery times also result. Vision Web (a joint product with several large ophthalmic suppliers) already brings greater efficiency to ordering.
    3.) Manufacturer owned laboratories account for roughly 70% of the US market, with Essilor, Hoya, & Sola being the primary networks. Remaining independents are generally associated with large laboratory groups (perhaps even following the model of private practices of selling into a large independent co-op).

    Finally (and most importantly to me), at age 52 Pete Hanlin is still in the optical field- incredulous at how "young" the other attendees at the Vision Expo (only one show after 2014, held in New Orleans) are looking. His son Pierce is now 26 and has a lovely wife and a child. Daughter Sara is now 24 and remains single- devoted to her career and not yet interested in boys (who have hopefully remained "yucky").
    :)
    Pete Hanlin, ABOM
    Vice President Professional Services
    Essilor of America

    http://linkedin.com/in/pete-hanlin-72a3a74

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete Hanlin View Post
    For my predictions, I'll go forward 14 years to 2020 (an interesting year- optically speaking)... I've laced the predictions with a few factual notes from 2006 (in blue). Note, while these predictions are naturally based on my best guesses- they do not necessarily reflect the plans or views of my employer, Essilor of America.

    Eye Care
    1.) Once retail began accepting managed care plans in 2010, the migration from the private practice to the retailer began to find new life. Eventually peaking at 68% in 2013. The effects were felt most acutely by ODs nearing retirement. Optometry published an article last year detailing the failure of succession for private practices (that is, more ODs are retiring without selling their practice- due to over-valuation of the practice and lack of correlation between the salary expectations of recent graduates from schools of Optometry and the doctors who hire them).
    2.) About that time, however, more ODs began joining co-ops in which they sold their practices into a group in which they received shares of ownership. There are groups like this already in existence- the one I'm most familiar with is in the Carolinas and is a shining example of private practice innovation. By leveraging their size (and ability to offer their own local coverage), private practices cut retail back to 57% of the market.
    3.) Refractions are still handled primarily by ODs, owing primarily to the oversaturation of ODs in the market. Due to graduation rates from the various schools of Optometry, there is currently a growing surplus of Optometrists in the US.

    :)

    thanks for the detailed posting. The only thing I would add is that I've personally seen a lot more young ODs starting up their old practices cold as opposed to buying into a current one. I think there are a ton of reasons for this... There are a lot of pitfalls with buying and selling a practice, just like any business. I think there may be a point where this affects the total number of private OD practices, but I don't think it necessarily means that those areas go unserved with private practice ODs and most or all of those patients go commercial. There are new ones to take the place, and other offices that will expand.


    just a thought.

  24. #24
    OptiBoard Apprentice vikramg's Avatar
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    Progressives are a commodity

    Ophthalmic Devices
    1.) PALs have divided into two segments,
    Commodity market= 80% with prices approximately equal to FT28s
    Technology market= 20% with personalized designs that are either specific to a patient-driven or frame fit measurement
    2.) SV remains roughly 50% of the lens market
    FTs are now 5%
    PALs 45%.
    PETE by forecasting that in 14 years 80% of the Progressive market would belong to commodity Progressives, selling at the same price as FTs, are you admiting that by that time the opticians would have enough education and experince to see through this "High end Progressive design =espensive "hype and realise as Mr Ryser frequently states that all progressives are essentially same ??

  25. #25
    Optical Curmudgeon EyeManFla's Avatar
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    The problem is we have a surplus of ODs that don't want to work! My doc goes on vacation and finding a fill in is really tough. I'm not going to pay some twerp fresh out of NOVA $650.00 a day!

    A couple more years I'll have finished up my Masters and Ph.D. and I'm selling out and getting out of this business!
    "Coimhéad fearg fhear na foighde"

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