Is this Iraq glass half empty - or half full?

[rinselberg]

It now seems likely that Iraq will follow the tortuous path that Lebanon has walked during the past three decades: a stable unitary state that begins to fracture in the face of resurgent ethnic and religious strife, followed by foreign intervention, and ultimately descends into a vicious civil war, after which the pieces are put back together (with luck) in a more realistic configuration that strikes a sustainable balance between the rights of individual communities and the logic of national unity.

Rami G. Khouri, Newsweek International: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13007826/site/newsweek/


Is the "vicious civil war" that Khouri refers to still ahead of us - or is that what is going on now?

I have often thought that the way Lebanon is today will be the next stage of development in Iraq: Hardly the democratic garden spot of the world, but a place where at least when a bomb blows up, it's actually infrequent enough to be news and not simply the latest "weather report".

Sometimes I think the critics of the Multi-National mission in Iraq (or W's war, if you'd rather ...) expected more than they really should have - a kind of "mission creep" in their minds.





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[chm2023]

Sometimes I think the critics of the Multi-National mission in Iraq (or W's war, if you'd rather ...) expected more than they really should have - a kind of "mission creep" in their minds.


...

Whoa Nellie!!

Who told us that the end game of this invasion would be the "flowering of democracy" and a "model" of democracy for other middle East countries??? As one of the aforementioned critics, I have held from the get-go that the admin had ludicrously naive goals. Another fun fact to chew on: remember when Iran was less bellicose and their brand of radical Islam held in check? Remember who was holding it in check? Right, that fella we were so anxious to kick out of power. The law of unintented consequences again rears its ugly head.

Mission creep my a**. I do give you points for originality though, the majority of the apologists are now lining up behind the doctrine of "the reason we aren't winning is because of the (liberal of course) press". And I always thought one of the sacred values of this bunch was personal responsibility. Guess that only applies to the dirty unwashed.:hammer:

[rinselberg]

A cakewalk ... We'll be greeted with candy and flowers as liberators ... Flowering of Iraqi democracy ... A model of democracy that will spread to Iraq's neighbors ... Iraqi oil will pay for their reconstruction ... Democratic transformation of the Middle East ...

I think that what I said at the very top of this thread, about looking for similarities between Iraq and Lebanon, suggests that I didn't quite swallow all of that, literally. As to a time not so long ago when there was a kinder, gentler Iran, held carefully in check by our good friend Saddam ... No, actually I don't remember THAT. Could you (chm) be having what the specialists call a "REM intrusion" - an episode like dreaming, that overcomes one's normal consciousness, even when they are otherwise awake?

By the way, the latest reports on the international standoff with Iran over their nuclear program look rather promising, in terms of moving towards a peaceful resolution that will assure that Iran will not develop a nuclear weapons capability - but let me return to Iraq.

I brought up Lebanon for a particular reason. It's a smaller country than Iraq, but with many of the same or similar religious and ethnic divisions and internal rivalries. Most of the sectarian violence there finally simmered down. I don't pretend to understand how that happened, but I expect the same thing will happen in Iraq.

I'm still on the hook for a prediction I made not too long ago:

I think that Iraq is going to look a lot better to many of us by years end. More credible government, more stability, more oil production, less violence and probably quite a few less American (and other non-Iraqi) soldiers at risk over there. Look back at the end of 2006 and laugh at me if I'm badly mistaken ...

OpEd on Iraq: Cutting to the chase


Six more months for the fire brigade in Iraq to get on top of the fire; otherwise, I'll turn into a complete OptiBoard foreign policy pumpkin - I mean "bumpkin".

[chm2023]

[QUOTE=rinselberg]A cakewalk ... We'll be greeted with candy and flowers as liberators ... Flowering of Iraqi democracy ... A model of democracy that will spread to Iraq's neighbors ... Iraqi oil will pay for their reconstruction ... Democratic transformation of the Middle East ...

I think that what I said at the very top of this thread, about looking for similarities between Iraq and Lebanon, suggests that I didn't quite swallow all of that, literally. As to a time not so long ago when there was a kinder, gentler Iran, held carefully in check by our good friend Saddam ... No, actually I don't remember THAT. Could you (chm) be having what the specialists call a "REM intrusion" - an episode like dreaming, that overcomes one's normal consciousness, even when they are otherwise awake?

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http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/GH11Ak01.html

The enemy of my enemy etc. These 2 countries have been at odds since the beginning of the last century. Our man Dubya has brought them together, to whose peril?

[rinselberg]

THANKS, chm - that was a very interesting read.

Friendly relations between Iraq and Iran would not be a threat to us - in fact, would be a positive development - if we could resolve our most important disputes with Iran.

Famously, the Iranians held on to the hostages until the very end of Jimmy Carter's term, and then released them when Ronald Reagan came in.

Seems like the Iranians liked the Republicans more than the Democrats - in 1980.

Fast forward to 2006.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Bushies are hoping for a boost just before the midterm elections from a "September surprise" - like a photo op of Condi Rice in Tehran, signing the Iranians up for the new "incentives" packge - in exchange for giving way on the uranium enrichment dispute.

Pie in the sky? Maybe. But I'm encouraged by the latest reports that the US, UK, France, Germany, China and Russia are all on the same page now about this "incentives" package that is being offered to Iran.





The mother of all letters: Iran's president writes to one George Walker Bush. See Ahmadinejad to earth ...

[chm2023]

[QUOTE=rinselberg]

THANKS, chm - that was a very interesting read.

Friendly relations between Iraq and Iran would not be a threat to us - in fact, would be a positive development - if we could resolve our most important disputes with Iran.

..well that's a mighty big if!!! And I don't know if I agree--the Iraqis have announced that they won't allow the US to use their territory as a base for any action against Iran. Guess we'll have to work with one of our other friends in the area. Oh no........

I wouldn't be surprised if the Bushies are hoping for a boost just before the midterm elections from a "September surprise" - like a photo op of Condi Rice in Tehran, signing the Iranians up for the new "incentives" packge - in exchange for giving way on the uranium enrichment dispute.

Pie in the sky? Maybe. But I'm encouraged by the latest reports that the US, UK, France, Germany, China and Russia are all on the same page now about this "incentives" package that is being offered to Iran.

From your lips to God's ears. I think Rice is a major improvement over the Cheney/Rumfeld twins. (of course, the same could be said of Rocky and Bullwinkle, and at least they had entertainment value). Rice seems to understand that negotiation and diplomacy aren't dirty words. Keep your fingers crossed.





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