Johns

I think it's amazing that every news source that I have access to (admittedly few compared to others) are claiming that the recession is over. For a time, I disagreed, but now, have come to the conclusion that the talking heads are indeed correct.

The recession is over, and the depression is about to begin.

Why do I believe this? Because the indicators that gauge a recession are almost all telling us that this is far from over, and they are not headed in the direction they should be for a recession that is waning.

For example, the indicators most often cited are wholesale/retail sales (trade), employment, personal income, and industrial production.

Of the indicators, only one, industrial production, have shown anything positive, and even then, those numbers are up only 0.1%. Sure, a gain is a gain, but when you consider that unemployment is still down 0.1%, personal income is down .03%, and sales are down .2%, how can the recession be winding down?

The stats I cite are from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve, and Bureau of Labor for the third quarter.

And this is after a stimulus package that "saved" reportedly (at first) hundreds of thousands, and now millions of jobs.

Some of the bright spots in sales were also fueled by the "Cash for Clunkers" program, which was nothing more than a way to funnel money back into the unions. Of course, that backfired when the majority of the money was spent on foreign cars. Oh well!

Some of the stimulus money also went to the states that were drowning in pools of debt, due to decreased tax revenues. Yes, they were propped up for a time, but now, they are in need of even more funds to keep going, and will undoubtedly need to lay off some of employees from their bloated payrolls. Bigger budgets and smaller incomes. Not an easy way to run a state, nor a country for that matter.

And I won't even get into all the balloon payments that are coming due for commercial developers and landlords. It is not uncommon for them to carry 5 year notes, and refinance at the end of the term. Now however, regardless of what the government is saying, the banks are not lending money to these folks. And these are not new projects. They are strip and retail centers that house many businesses that have renegotiated lower rents to survive. Not to mention the fact that when the developers refinance, the money they can get is based upon the equity in their buildings. Well w/real estate being devalued, there is not much equity left, and therefore, nothing to put up against the money they need. So, we'll see many more shopping centers being foreclosed on, and more people out of work.

So yeah, I believe the recession may be coming to an end, but the recession might be better than what I think is around the corner.

Not a rosy picture, and I'm not trying to be a downer, but I hate to watch the media portraying what they call the end of the recession. Yeah, stocks have rebounded for now, but I believe it's a sucker's rally, and the second drop is right around the corner.

I've always said that a recession is like a big wind. The businesses that are already weak will fall. I don't know what a depression is like, except from what my grandparents told me, and it wasn't pretty.

I'm no economics expert, nor am I any type of business guru. I'm just a small business guy on main street that sees more and more credit cards being used, hears more stories of folks losing their homes and possessions, and a lot of other people saying that the economy is on it's way back up.

I truly hope the latter group is right.